Bitcoin trades around $64,000 in August 2026, down 50% from the October 2025 peak

In August 2026, Bitcoin stabilized around $64,000, marking a 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of $126,209. While technical indicators like the weekly 200-period moving average and an aggregate on-chain cost basis of $52,750 provide strong structural support, the market faces headwinds. Inconsistent US spot ETF flows, including a $61.53 million outflow on August 6, and macroeconomic pressures from the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% interest rate target continue to limit upward momentum.

Bitcoin August 2026 price correction

• ▪Bitcoin traded around $64,040 on August 4, 2026, representing a decline of approximately 50% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,209.
• ▪Bitcoin stabilized near $64,382 on August 6, 2026, amid a broader cryptocurrency market decline of 0.71%.

Historical August performance patterns

• ▪Historically, August has been one of Bitcoin's weakest months, with nine of thirteen Augusts ending lower between 2013 and 2025.
• ▪Bitcoin's average August return since 2013 is +1.12%, while the median return is approximately -7.49%.

Weekly MA200 technical support

• ▪Bitcoin has held its weekly 200-period moving average as a key technical support level since June 1, 2026.
• ▪The weekly 200-period moving average support is reinforced by Fibonacci retracement levels and the former 2024 consolidation zone.

On-chain cost basis metrics

• ▪A bullish divergence emerged between Bitcoin's market price and net capital flows, signaling potential exhaustion of selling pressure.
• ▪Bitcoin's realized price, representing the aggregate on-chain cost basis, was estimated at approximately $52,750 with an MVRV of 1.21 in early August 2026.

US spot ETF flows

• ▪US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $61.53 million on August 6, 2026, ending a three-week buying streak.
• ▪US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of +$211.5 million on August 4, 2026, following a period of inconsistent institutional demand.

Stagflation concerns

• ▪The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, 2026, in a nine-to-three vote.
• ▪Stagflation concerns returned to financial markets after U.S. manufacturing data pointed to slowing economic growth alongside elevated input costs.

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