Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical Red Sea gateway carrying 7% of global energy, if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure. While the Houthis have positioned missiles and drones in the highlands overlooking the Gulf of Aden, sources indicate that embedded Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers will control the activation order. This threat raises fears of a severe global energy crisis, as the Strait of Hormuz is already closed.
Bab el-Mandeb closure threat
- ▪Iran has asked Yemen's Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure.
- ▪The proposal to close the Red Sea oil route was discussed within the Islamic Republic's leadership and conveyed recently to Houthi commanders.
IRGC operational control
- ▪A source close to the Houthis said IRGC representatives already in Yemen would control the timing of any move to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- ▪The United States says Iran has provided the Houthis with weapons, funding and training, while Tehran denies the accusation.
Global energy supply disruption
- ▪A simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would disrupt the Middle East's two primary oil export routes.
- ▪The Bab el-Mandeb Strait currently carries approximately 7 percent of global energy supplies, including 70 percent of Saudi Arabia's energy exports routed through Yanbu.
Houthi maritime weapons development
- ▪A source close to the Houthis said the group had deployed missiles and drones in Yemen's highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden and was awaiting an order to attack shipping.
- ▪Despite a year-long pause in maritime attacks, the Houthis have continued to advance their maritime capabilities, including missiles, drones, and sea mines.
International shipping warnings
- ▪U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called on all parties to respect U.N. Security Council Resolution 2722 and avoid further escalation in the Red Sea.
- ▪Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute warned that the Houthi threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is credible and should be taken seriously.
U.N. detainee release controversy
- ▪The Southern Arabian Transitional Council warned that a U.N.-facilitated detainee agreement in Yemen may release individuals convicted of smuggling Iranian weapons to the Houthis.
- ▪The Office of the U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen stated that the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross do not decide which specific detainees are released.
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