Secondary markets show a dramatic reversal in AI company valuations, with Anthropic shares trading at a 50% premium to its $380 billion funding round while OpenAI shares remain unsellable despite a recent $122 billion fundraising at $852 billion valuation. Next Round Capital reports $600 million in OpenAI shares seeking buyers with no takers, while Hiive registers over $1.6 billion in demand for Anthropic at premium prices. Investors cite Anthropic's dominance in lucrative enterprise markets versus OpenAI's slower enterprise adoption and higher infrastructure spending commitments as key factors. Banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are waiving typical 15-20% carry fees on OpenAI shares to stimulate demand while maintaining standard fees for Anthropic. The valuation gap and market dynamics occur as Anthropic faces Pentagon supply-chain restrictions and recent security incidents, while both companies weigh public listings with OpenAI expected as early as 2026.
Collapse in demand for OpenAI shares on secondary markets
- ▪Next Round Capital sees bids for OpenAI coming in at a valuation of about $765 billion, a 10% discount from the previous $850 billion valuation
- ▪Next Round Capital could not find anyone in its pool of hundreds of institutional investors to purchase $600 million worth of OpenAI shares
- ▪Banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have begun offering OpenAI shares to wealth clients without charging carry fees
- ▪About a half-dozen institutional investors approached Next Round Capital in recent weeks looking to sell about $600 million of OpenAI shares
- ▪OpenAI announced it had completed its largest-ever fundraising, drawing $122 billion in backing from tech giants, venture capital funds and retail investors
Surge in investor interest and premium valuations for Anthropic
- ▪Hiive has registered more than $1.6 billion of demand for Anthropic shares at a premium valuation
- ▪The large gap between OpenAI's $852-billion valuation and Anthropic's $380 billion valuation has investors rushing to grab equity in Anthropic before it rises
- ▪Goldman Sachs is charging its usual carry fee for clients interested in Anthropic, which is often roughly 15% to 20% of profits
- ▪Next Round Capital and Augment are both seeing bids for Anthropic that value the company at roughly $600 billion, more than 50% higher than its previous funding round
- ▪Buyers have indicated they have $2 billion of cash ready to deploy into Anthropic shares
Contrasting business models and operational challenges
- ▪Anthropic inadvertently released internal source code behind Claude in its second security slip-up in a matter of days
- ▪Both OpenAI and Anthropic are weighing plans to go public, with OpenAI's listing expected as early as 2026
- ▪OpenAI has committed to spend far more than Anthropic on infrastructure to support its AI ambitions in coming years
Perspective of OpenAI sellers and institutional investors
- ▪OpenAI's $852 billion valuation appears disconnected from secondary market demand where shares trade at 10% discounts
Perspective of Anthropic buyers and bullish investors
- ▪Anthropic's $380 billion valuation represents a significant discount opportunity compared to OpenAI's $852 billion valuation given similar market positions
Perspective of Investment banks (Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs)
- ▪Goldman Sachs maintaining 15% to 20% carry fees on Anthropic shares reflects strong natural demand requiring no fee incentives
- ▪Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs waiving carry fees on OpenAI shares signals banks' efforts to create liquidity in a stalled market
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