Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic remains depressed three weeks after US-Iran ceasefire agreement

Three weeks after a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, 2026, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed. A series of attacks on commercial vessels, including Qatari and Saudi tankers, has prompted US President Donald Trump to declare the truce over. Traffic fell to just 23 ships on July 8, far below the pre-war average of 138. Technical hurdles, extensive infrastructure damage, and unresolved route disputes continue to stall a full recovery of Gulf energy flows.

Strait of Hormuz reopening logistics

• ▪Only 513 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in the first 18 days after it reopened between June 18 and July 5, 2026, averaging 28 ships per day
• ▪The number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to 23 on July 8, 2026, down from 47 ships a week prior
• ▪Before the US-Iran conflict, an average of 138 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Center

US-Iran ceasefire fragility

• ▪The June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding committed Iran to use its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days
• ▪President Donald Trump stated that the June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is over
• ▪Three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG tanker, a Saudi crude tanker, and a Liberian tanker, were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz between July 6 and July 7, 2026

Trapped vessel clearance operations

• ▪Several hundred ships remained stuck inside the Gulf as of mid-June 2026, requiring coordinated sequencing to exit via limited viable routes
• ▪An estimated 6,000 seafarers remain stranded aboard ships in the Gulf that are unable to safely transit the Strait of Hormuz

Gulf production restart sequencing

• ▪Restarting older oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait requires gradual pressure adjustments to avoid well damage, limiting the pace of production recovery
• ▪QatarEnergy has begun a phased restart of its natural gas production and expects to restore roughly 80 percent of its export capacity within two months

Regional energy infrastructure damage

• ▪The conflict has caused extensive damage to gas facilities in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as oil refineries in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
• ▪Damage to QatarEnergy's LNG production facilities at Ras Laffan is expected to take up to five years to repair

Global market recovery outlook

• ▪Independent refiners in China have moved quickly to purchase returning Middle East oil, while buyers in India continue to hedge their bets
• ▪The International Energy Agency suggests Middle East oil production could restabilize by the end of 2026, putting global markets on track for a supply glut in 2027