Cook Political Report shifts three Senate races toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report has shifted its ratings for three key U.S. Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina toward the Democratic Party. These adjustments boost Democratic prospects of retaking the Senate majority, with projected pickups rising to between two and six seats. The shifts come amid declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump, which have fallen to 38% in national averages due to economic concerns and the war in Iran. In response, national Republicans are redirecting campaign funds from North Carolina to bolster Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas, where moderate Democrat Adam Hamilton has forced a statistical tie.

Cook Political Report Senate projections

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for three U.S. Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina in favor of Democrats on October 6, 2026
• ▪The Cook Political Report revised its estimated Senate seat pickups for Democrats in the November elections to between two and six seats, where the party needs four to gain a majority

The Kansas Senate race

• ▪A New York Times/Siena poll updated on October 7, 2026, showed Republican Senator Roger Marshall leading Democrat Adam Hamilton 47% to 46% in Kansas
• ▪National Republicans are redirecting campaign funds out of North Carolina to support incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on October 6, 2026
• ▪Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, is running as a moderate against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race

The New Hampshire Senate race

• ▪Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is leading Republican former Senator John Sununu 51% to 44% in a St. Anselm College poll updated on October 7, 2026
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on October 6, 2026
• ▪Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu are competing for the New Hampshire Senate seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen

The North Carolina Senate race

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on October 6, 2026
• ▪Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 47% to 35% in a North Carolina YouGov/Catawba College poll updated on October 7, 2026
• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund paused its advertising for Republican nominee Michael Whatley in North Carolina to redirect resources elsewhere

Control of the Senate

• ▪Republicans won back control of the U.S. Senate in 2024 by flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana
• ▪Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate after winning back control in the 2024 elections

President Trump's approval ratings

• ▪President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average amid public fatigue over the war in Iran and economic concerns
• ▪Political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro stated that President Donald Trump's performance rating has fallen noticeably among Republicans and continues to decline among Independents

Debatable claims

• ▪Adam Hamilton's moderate, faith-based platform is an effective model for red-state Democrats
• ▪Donald Trump's low approval rating is the primary cause of Republican Senate struggles