Novo Nordisk's CagriSema outperforms Eli Lilly in diabetes trial as 700,000 seniors start GLP-1s under Medicare

Novo Nordisk announces that its experimental drug CagriSema outperforms Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in a late-stage diabetes trial, achieving 12.4% average weight loss. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks reports that 700,000 seniors have started GLP-1 treatments under Medicare's new Bridge program since July 2026, with Lilly capturing 70% of those patients. Novo Nordisk plans to launch CagriSema in early 2027, pending a late 2026 FDA decision.

CagriSema diabetes trial results

• ▪In a separate late-stage clinical trial of adults with obesity, a 1.0 mg dose of Novo Nordisk's CagriSema showed a 21% weight loss compared to a placebo.
• ▪In a late-stage clinical trial of patients with diabetes, Novo Nordisk's experimental drug CagriSema delivered an estimated average weight loss of 12.4%.
• ▪In a late-stage clinical trial, a 1 mg dose of Novo Nordisk's CagriSema demonstrated superior weight loss compared to a 5 mg dose of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, which showed 9.1% weight loss.
• ▪In a late-stage clinical trial of patients with diabetes, Novo Nordisk's CagriSema demonstrated non-inferior blood sugar reduction compared to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.

Novo-Lilly weight-loss drug competition

• ▪Novo Nordisk's U.S.-listed shares fell more than 4% on September 21, 2026, as analysts questioned the drugmaker's pricing power and dealmaking strategy ahead of patent expiries.
• ▪In a head-to-head clinical trial in early 2026, Novo Nordisk's CagriSema fell short of Eli Lilly's Zepbound on weight loss.
• ▪Novo Nordisk's CagriSema is a weekly injection combining cagrilintide, which mimics the pancreatic hormone amylin, and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy.
• ▪BMO analyst Evan Seigerman stated that the low-dose trial findings were less impactful because Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has already proven superior to higher doses of Novo Nordisk's CagriSema in obesity.

Medicare GLP-1 coverage rollout

• ▪Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks stated that 700,000 new seniors have started GLP-1 treatments since Medicare coverage of obesity drugs launched in July 2026.
• ▪The Medicare obesity drug coverage is administered through a temporary program called 'Bridge,' which allows eligible beneficiaries to obtain weight loss drugs for a $50 monthly co-pay.
• ▪The federal Medicare program covers approximately 66 million people who are age 65 and older or have disabilities.

CagriSema FDA regulatory timeline

• ▪Novo Nordisk detailed a multi-year rollout for its next-generation obesity injectables, targeting a launch of CagriSema in early 2027.
• ▪Novo Nordisk expects a decision from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on its application for CagriSema for weight management in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Lilly Medicare market share

• ▪Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks stated that Eli Lilly medicines capture approximately 70% of the 700,000 new senior patients who started GLP-1 treatments under Medicare.
• ▪Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks stated that one-third of new patients on oral GLP-1s are taking Eli Lilly's obesity pill, Foundayo, which launched in April 2026.