International community warns of imminent mass atrocities as RSF encircles Sudanese city of El-Obeid

The international community, including the US, UK, and UN, has warned of imminent mass atrocities in Sudan as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) encircle the strategic city of El-Obeid. Home to 500,000 people, the city has faced devastating RSF drone strikes on power, water, and fuel infrastructure. Observers fear a repeat of the genocidal violence seen in El-Fasher, while the Sudanese military attempts to mount a defense of this critical transport corridor.

RSF encirclement of El-Obeid

• ▪The encirclement of El-Obeid by the Rapid Support Forces has been ongoing for several months
• ▪The Rapid Support Forces and allied militias have encircled and massed forces around the strategic Sudanese city of El-Obeid

Strategic importance of El-Obeid

• ▪El-Obeid contains a sprawling air base and serves as the home to a Sudanese military infantry division
• ▪El-Obeid is located on Sudan's main east-west road leading to the Nile Valley and the capital city of Khartoum

Drone strikes on infrastructure

• ▪Rapid Support Forces drone strikes have targeted El-Obeid's main power station, fuel depots, electricity lines, and water infrastructure
• ▪Recent drone attacks on infrastructure in El-Obeid have cut off essential services for over 500,000 people, including 200,000 internally displaced civilians

International warnings of atrocities

• ▪The United States State Department warned that mass atrocities could be imminent if the Rapid Support Forces assault El-Obeid
• ▪The United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, and Norway issued a joint statement warning that El-Obeid is on the precipice of an atrocity
• ▪United Nations officials warned that an assault on El-Obeid could mirror the October 2025 assault on El-Fasher, which bore hallmarks of genocide

Military defensive capabilities

• ▪A Sudanese military official stated that recent army drone strikes destroyed a Rapid Support Forces battalion and over 50 armored vehicles in West Kordofan
• ▪The Sudanese military has prioritized defending El-Obeid and the east-west corridor to the Nile Valley since breaking a yearlong siege on the city

RSF offensive prospects

• ▪The Rapid Support Forces have deployed air defense systems in Abu Zabad, West Kordofan, to serve as a logistical hub for operations targeting El-Obeid and Dilling
• ▪Analysts suggest the Rapid Support Forces' force strength is reduced due to defensive battles and intertribal fighting, which may impact their ability to sustain a siege