Gold prices rise as weak US jobs data fuels Federal Reserve rate cut expectations

Gold prices erased losses on September 4, 2024, as weak US labor market data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July 2024 job openings fell to their lowest level since early 2021. Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on September 3, 2026, supporting unchanged rates amid moderating inflation further fueled expectations, causing gold prices to jump and the US dollar to decline.

Gold price movements

• ▪US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to US$4,522.60 on September 4, 2026.
• ▪Gold prices erased earlier losses on September 4, 2024, after US job openings data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
• ▪Spot gold was trading at US$4,475.75 per ounce as of 0040 GMT on Friday, September 4, 2026, heading for a small weekly gain.

Federal Reserve rate expectations

• ▪Elevated interest rates historically weigh on gold because it is a non-yielding asset, despite its role as an inflation hedge.
• ▪Traders priced in an approximately 50 percent chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool on September 4, 2026.
• ▪Weak US job openings data in July 2024 increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering borrowing costs.

US labor market data

• ▪US weekly jobless claims rose marginally, pointing to stable labor market conditions with low layoffs, according to data reported on September 4, 2026.
• ▪US job openings fell in July 2024 to their lowest level since the start of 2021, while layoffs rose, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Fed Governor Waller comments

• ▪Comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on September 3, 2026, led traders to scale back expectations for a September interest rate hike.
• ▪Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he would support leaving interest rates unchanged if economic data continued to show moderating inflation pressures.

Financial market reactions

• ▪US stocks and bonds rose, while the US dollar declined, following comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on September 3, 2026.
• ▪Spot silver fell 0.1 percent to US$66.88 per ounce, platinum lost 0.3 percent to US$1,820.18, and palladium declined 0.4 percent to US$1,415.37 on September 4, 2026.

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