Ryan Mackenzie faces tough reelection fight in Pennsylvania's 7th District as economy threatens GOP hold

Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie faces a challenging reelection fight against Democrat Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District. Rising living costs for gas, groceries, and childcare, along with low national approval ratings for President Donald Trump, are creating headwinds for the GOP incumbent. With Democrats needing a net gain of three seats to capture the House majority, Pennsylvania's four competitive battleground districts carry immense national stakes.

Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District race

• ▪Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie won Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District in 2024 by a 1 percentage point margin while Donald Trump won the district 51% to 48%.
• ▪Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie faces Democratic candidate Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District in the November 2026 midterm election.
• ▪Democrat Bob Brooks led Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie 45% to 40% in a September 2026 Franklin & Marshall College poll for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District.
• ▪Inside Elections rated Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District race between Ryan Mackenzie and Bob Brooks as a Toss-up in October 2026.

Campaign attacks in Pennsylvania's 7th district

• ▪Bob Brooks's campaign denied personal allegations and noted that a family debt lawsuit against him was dismissed.
• ▪Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie characterized Democratic challenger Bob Brooks as a crook and a racist in October 2026, pointing to personal debt litigation and past social media posts.

White working-class voters in Pennsylvania's 7th district

• ▪In Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, white working-class voters without a four-year college degree make up roughly 45% of residents 25 and older.
• ▪White working-class voters in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District shifted toward the Republican Party following Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign.

Latino voters in Pennsylvania's 7th district

• ▪Latinos make up over 20% of the population in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District.
• ▪Both Ryan Mackenzie and Bob Brooks launched targeted Latino voter outreach campaigns in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District ahead of the 2026 election.

Economic concerns among Pennsylvania voters

• ▪High costs for fuel, groceries, and childcare are driving voter dissatisfaction ahead of the November 2026 Pennsylvania midterm elections.
• ▪Spanish-language radio host Victor Martinez in Allentown reported strong listener frustration regarding high fuel and grocery prices ahead of the 2026 election.

Impact of presidential approval on midterms

• ▪Donald Trump's approval ratings reached low levels in 2026, impacting down-ballot Republicans in competitive midterm races.
• ▪Political science professor Michael Berkman stated that an unpopular president during a midterm election typically drives increased voter turnout for the opposing party.

Pennsylvania's role in U.S. House control

• ▪A Democratic sweep of Pennsylvania's four competitive House districts in 2026 would be sufficient to erase the narrow Republican House majority.
• ▪Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the November 2026 midterm elections to gain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• ▪Pennsylvania contains four tight House contests in 2026 that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
• ▪House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries both visited Pennsylvania ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District race

• ▪Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. defeated incumbent Democratic Representative Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District in 2024 by less than 2 percentage points.
• ▪Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is challenging freshman Republican Representative Rob Bresnahan Jr. in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District in 2026.
• ▪Outside groups invested over $10 million into the Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District House race between Paige Cognetti and Rob Bresnahan Jr. as of October 2026.