NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich will unveil his "Theory of Victory" strategy in Poland on October 12, 2026. Drawing on lessons from the war in Ukraine, the plan outlines how NATO would repel a Russian invasion on its eastern flank by combining ground forces with low-cost drones, AI-enabled targeting, and digital strikes to cripple Russian command networks. The strategy emerges amid warnings of Russian hybrid threats and efforts by Baltic states to bolster their defense postures.
Introduction of the Theory of Victory strategy
- ▪The "Theory of Victory" strategy aims to encourage European allies to boost defense investments, increase operational readiness, and demonstrate absolute readiness to convince adversaries that aggression would fail.
- ▪General Alexus Grynkewich is scheduled to publicly present the "Theory of Victory" strategy in Warsaw, Poland, during the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12-13, 2026.
- ▪The "Theory of Victory" strategy draws heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine, where low-cost drones and rapidly evolving technologies have reshaped the battlefield and exposed the limits of expensive conventional forces.
- ▪NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich has drafted an unclassified strategy document titled "Theory of Victory" detailing how the alliance would repel and defeat a potential Russian invasion of its eastern flank.
Tactical elements of the Theory of Victory
- ▪Under the "Theory of Victory" plan, NATO intends to halt a Russian incursion using ground forces combined with low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems, and artificial intelligence-enabled targeting.
- ▪Once NATO forces gain freedom of maneuver, the strategy calls for using digital and kinetic attacks to destroy Russian command, control, and targeting networks to achieve a rapid defeat.
- ▪The "Theory of Victory" strategy incorporates capabilities developed through NATO's Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, which focuses on using drones and artificial intelligence to counter larger opposing forces.
Authority to respond to aggression
- ▪Retired U.S. Army Major General Gordon "Skip" Davis Jr. stated that NATO's Supreme Allied Commander has the authority to deploy the Allied Reaction Force without waiting for a North Atlantic Council decision.
- ▪Retired U.S. Army Major General Gordon "Skip" Davis Jr. stated that multinational NATO forces stationed along the eastern flank have the right to respond immediately in self-defense without waiting for a political decision from Brussels.
Assessments of conventional military threats
- ▪Local governments in the Baltic Sea region stated they do not see signs that Moscow is planning a conventional attack in the near future.
- ▪NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated that there is no imminent conventional military threat to alliance territory, though Europe must remain prepared for sustained Russian hybrid attacks.
- ▪NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated that the alliance would detect and respond to any potential Russian military buildup.
Estonian military preparations
- ▪Estonian officials stated that the country is preparing for a possible conflict with the Russian Federation.
- ▪Estonian officials told the Financial Times that Tallinn is moving the core of its military forces to an expanded base located less than 50 kilometers from the Russian border.
Russian hybrid threats in Germany
- ▪The head of Germany's foreign intelligence service, Martin Jaeger, warned on October 5, 2026, that Germany is at risk of a violent conflict with Russia, citing a recent attempted attack in Leipzig.
- ▪Germany has faced alleged Moscow-backed sabotage operations on its soil amid escalating Russian hybrid attacks.
European defense spending and priorities
- ▪NATO allies in Europe have faced internal tensions over how to prioritize defense spending between traditional conventional weapons, such as tanks, and alternative modern combat technologies.
- ▪NATO allies, particularly in Europe, have significantly increased their defense spending amid heightened security tensions.
Review of United States military presence
- ▪The Pentagon has begun a review of the United States military presence in Europe.
- ▪In mid-2026, the United States sent NATO allies a questionnaire assessing their defense spending and support for U.S. President Donald Trump's policies to inform potential reductions in U.S. military assets in Europe.
Debatable claims
- ▪NATO is justified in launching military operations on Russian territory to repel an attack
- ▪Publicizing NATO's 'Theory of Victory' strategy does more harm than good
- ▪Front-line NATO forces are justified in launching immediate counter-attacks without political approval from Brussels
- ▪European NATO allies should prioritize modern combat technologies over traditional conventional weapons
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