OPEC+ expected to raise oil output targets in September despite regional conflicts limiting production

Seven OPEC+ members are likely to raise their combined September 2026 oil output target by about 188,000 barrels per day when they meet on August 2, according to three sources cited by Reuters. No final decision has been made. If approved, the increase would fully unwind the 1.65 million-barrel-per-day voluntary cut agreed in 2023, taking the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC into account. Actual OPEC+ production remains well below its quotas, falling from almost 43 million barrels per day in February to 36.28 million in June as the Iran war disrupted Gulf exports. Oil prices returned to around $100 amid renewed concerns over Gulf shipments, while recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers disrupted a key alternative export route.

OPEC+ September output increase

• ▪The expected September 2026 increase of 188,000 barrels per day will fully unwind the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary supply cut agreed in 2023, taking into account the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC.
• ▪The planned September 2026 increase of 188,000 barrels per day matches the monthly target hikes previously implemented for June, July, and August 2026.
• ▪Seven core OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are expected to increase their combined oil output target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for September 2026.

Red Sea tanker attacks

• ▪The Houthi attacks disrupted what Reuters described as the main Gulf bypass route for Saudi exports.
• ▪Reuters reported that the Houthis had attacked Saudi Arabian oil tankers in recent days, disrupting the main Gulf bypass route for Saudi exports.

Brent crude price surge

• ▪Brent crude prices have climbed close to 40 percent during the month of July 2026.
• ▪West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose more than 6 percent to trade above $92 a barrel, marking its first time trading above $90 since June 2026.
• ▪Oil prices rose to around $100 a barrel amid renewed concerns over Gulf exports following the collapse of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement, while Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers added concerns about the Red Sea export route.

Regional conflict production constraints

• ▪Kazakhstan has reduced upstream oil flows after drone attacks shut down tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea.
• ▪Russia continues to face refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes, while Iraq remains constrained by export bottlenecks.
• ▪OPEC+ actual production has fallen significantly below official quotas, with June 2026 output at 36.28 million barrels per day compared to nearly 43 million barrels per day in February 2026 before the Iran war.
• ▪The collapse of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement renewed concerns over Gulf exports after the agreement had allowed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to increase.

OPEC+ quota policy disconnect

• ▪OPEC+ is treating its monthly quota schedule as a fixed policy rather than a flexible lever to manage current price spikes, leaving the physical market tight.
• ▪Reuters reported that OPEC+ has been raising its output targets in the hope of recapturing market share when the Iran war ends.