Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Infrastructure in Novorossiysk and Nizhny Novgorod

Ukrainian drones attacked major Russian oil infrastructure including the Black Sea hub at Novorossiysk, the NORSI refinery in Nizhny Novgorod, and critically the Baltic Sea terminals at Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which together handle two-fifths of Moscow's seaborne oil exports and nearly 2 percent of global oil supply. The strikes using long-range FP-1 drones traveling over 1,000 kilometers destroyed storage tanks and shipping infrastructure, causing fires visible in satellite images and costing Moscow an estimated $1 billion while forcing both Baltic terminals offline as of April 3, 2026. Ukraine escalated these attacks to deprive Russia of windfall profits from oil prices that soared due to the US-Israel war on Iran beginning in late February 2026, which partially closed the Strait of Hormuz. The campaign represents Ukraine's strategic shift since 2023 toward targeting Russian war financing through oil infrastructure rather than conducting indiscriminate civilian strikes, even as Russia destroyed Ukrainian power and heating stations leaving millions without electricity in minus 20-degree temperatures in January 2026.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian Baltic oil infrastructure

• ▪Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russia's two largest oil terminals on the Baltic Sea at Ust-Luga and Primorsk over a two-week period ending in early April 2026
• ▪Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries were initially limited to about 500 kilometers from the border in 2023
• ▪Ukraine hit 13 Russian oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic to the Volga region
• ▪A satellite image dated March 29, 2026 showed smoke rising from damaged oil storage tanks in Primorsk, Russia after a Ukrainian attack
• ▪The FP-1 drone can carry up to 120 kilograms of explosives and fly approximately 1,500 kilometers
• ▪The Ust-Luga oil terminal is located 165 kilometers from St Petersburg, Russia
• ▪Swarms of long-range Ukrainian drones flew more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border to attack the Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil facilities

Economic and strategic impact on Russia's oil exports

• ▪Ukrainian strikes on Russian Baltic oil terminals cost Moscow $1 billion according to a Bloomberg report on March 31, 2026
• ▪Ukrainian attacks on Russian Baltic oil terminals caused the sharpest fall of Russia's Baltic oil exports since 2022
• ▪Both the Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports were unable to ship any cargo as of April 3, 2026
• ▪The Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil terminals handle almost 2 percent of global oil supply according to the International Energy Agency
• ▪Every $10 spike in global oil prices means $1.6 billion of extra income for the Kremlin per month
• ▪The Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil terminals handle two-fifths of Moscow's seaborne oil exports according to the International Energy Agency

Connection to US-Israel-Iran conflict and oil prices

• ▪Washington and Tel Aviv began bombarding Iran at the end of February 2026

Civilian impact and broader war dynamics

• ▪The smell from fires at Russian Baltic oil terminals began in late March 2026 and varied from diesel engine exhaust to burning plastic and rotten eggs
• ▪Russia conducted a massive campaign to destroy Ukrainian power and central heating stations that peaked in January 2026 as temperatures fell to minus 20 degrees Celsius
• ▪Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries date back to 2023 following the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive along the 1,200-kilometer-long front line
• ▪Russian attacks on Ukrainian power and heating stations in January 2026 left millions without power and heat
• ▪Konstantin, a 53-year-old asthmatic resident of St Petersburg, could smell burning crude, fuel and chemicals from Ukrainian attacks on Baltic oil terminals
• ▪An overnight explosion occurred in a multistorey residential building in Sevastopol, Crimea on March 24, 2026

Perspective of Russian civilians near targeted facilities

• ▪The smell from fires at Russian Baltic oil terminals began in late March 2026 and varied from diesel engine exhaust to burning plastic and rotten eggs
• ▪Konstantin, a 53-year-old asthmatic resident of St Petersburg, could smell burning crude, fuel and chemicals from Ukrainian attacks on Baltic oil terminals