Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces a highly competitive U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico. Despite winning a costly Republican primary runoff against incumbent John Cornyn with Donald Trump's endorsement, Paxton is weighed down by past bribery allegations and a public divorce from state Senator Angela Paxton. Talarico is working to mobilize Texas's 2.7 million Black eligible voters and capitalize on Paxton's low favorability ratings among suburban voters to flip the seat.
The 2026 Texas Senate race matchup
- ▪Ken Paxton is vulnerable to an upset in the 2026 Texas Senate race due to past bribery allegations, marital drama, and low favorability ratings.
- ▪Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is running as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2026 against Democratic challenger James Talarico.
Ken Paxton's favorability and trustworthiness ratings
- ▪A late September 2026 poll from Texas Southern University showed Ken Paxton viewed favorably by 43% of likely voters and unfavorably by 55%.
- ▪An August 2026 Texas Politics Project survey found that only one-third of voters described Ken Paxton as "honest and trustworthy," while more than half disagreed.
Suburban voter preferences in Texas
- ▪An August 2026 Texas Politics Project survey found that 29% of Texas suburban voters viewed Ken Paxton favorably and 54% unfavorably, while 43% viewed James Talarico favorably and 34% unfavorably.
- ▪On the eve of the 2018 midterms, approximately 50% of Texas suburban voters held a favorable view of Ted Cruz.
James Talarico's strategy and challenges with Black voters
- ▪Black voter turnout is considered crucial for Democrat James Talarico's bid to break the Republican Party's decades-long statewide winning streak in Texas.
- ▪Former President Barack Obama appeared with James Talarico at a May 2026 campaign stop in Austin to help build support among Black voters.
- ▪James Talarico faces challenges uniting Black voters after defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett in a divisive Democratic primary, as Crockett has not endorsed his campaign.
- ▪Texas has approximately 2.7 million Black eligible voters, representing the largest Black electorate of any state in the United States.
The 2026 Republican primary fallout
- ▪John Cornyn and his allies spent $90 million criticizing Ken Paxton during the Republican primary, and Cornyn stated on September 25, 2026, that he will not support Paxton.
- ▪Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 2026 Republican primary runoff after receiving an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Ken and Angela Paxton's divorce
- ▪Angela Paxton filed for divorce from Ken Paxton in July 2025 after 38 years of marriage, citing "biblical grounds" on social media.
- ▪Ken Paxton stated on X that he and Angela Paxton decided to divorce after facing pressures from political attacks and public scrutiny.
- ▪Angela Paxton accused Ken Paxton of adultery in a divorce filing obtained by KUT and The New York Times, which showed they had not cohabitated since June 2024.
Donald Trump's approval ratings in Texas
- ▪Donald Trump's job approval rating among Texas Republicans stood at 83% in August 2026, down from 92% in February 2025.
- ▪Donald Trump's job approval rating in Texas stood at 43% approval and 51% disapproval in an August 2026 Texas Politics Project survey.
Debatable claims
- ▪Ken Paxton's impeachment acquittal clears him of ethical wrongdoing
- ▪James Talarico's primary victory over Jasmine Crockett undermines his support among Black voters
- ▪Ken Paxton's conservative alignment outweighs his personal controversies
- ▪John Cornyn should support Ken Paxton's Senate campaign
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