IAEA Chief and Harvard Expert Say Iran's Nuclear Capabilities Survived US-Israeli Strikes, Contradicting Trump's 'Obliterated' Claim

Mar 20, 2026

International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi told CBS News that Iran's nuclear program retained major capabilities after US-Israeli strikes in summer 2025, with approximately 972 pounds of 60-percent enriched uranium and centrifuge expertise surviving intact. Harvard expert Matthew Bunn published an analysis in Asia Times arguing the materials were 'by no means obliterated,' directly contradicting Trump administration claims that the program was destroyed. Iran reportedly stored much of its enriched uranium in deep underground tunnels near Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow that proved too deep for bunker-buster bombs to destroy, according to General Dan Caine. The surviving 60% enriched uranium could be further enriched to weapons-grade 90% in just weeks with 100 centrifuges, or potentially used in a nuclear bomb without further enrichment. Former defense secretary Mark Esper warned that securing the nuclear materials would require a large force and be extremely perilous, as dozens of containers weighing tons are stored in multiple deep locations across Iran.

Survival of Iran's Nuclear Materials Despite US-Israeli Strikes

▪Iran possessed roughly 970 pounds (441 kilograms) of highly enriched uranium containing 60% of the U-235 isotope before the summer 2025 bombings.
▪Iran has stockpiles of over 6 tons of uranium enriched to 5% U-235, some of which may have survived the US and Israeli strikes.
▪The Trump administration demanded that Iran export its enriched uranium stocks just two days before the attacks began in 2026.

Challenges of Securing or Destroying Underground Uranium Stockpiles

▪Iran could further enrich its 60% enriched uranium to 90% or more U-235 in a few weeks with just 100 centrifuges.
▪Two-thirds of the work of enriching uranium all the way to 90% U-235 has already been done to reach the 5% enrichment level.

Diplomatic Alternatives and Long-Term Nuclear Containment

▪In Project Sapphire in 1994, U.S. teams worked with Kazakhstan to fly some 1,280 pounds (580 kilograms) of highly enriched uranium to safe storage in Tennessee.
▪The 2015 Iran nuclear deal was an agreement between China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union and Iran.
▪Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018.