Iran and Oman are nearing a bilateral deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by routing inbound ships through an Iranian-controlled channel and outbound vessels near Oman, sharing a proposed service fee. While President Donald Trump seeks a quick resolution to ease high gas prices and political pressure ahead of the November midterms, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Pentagon officials warn the deal would ratify Iranian control over an international waterway, setting a dangerous global precedent.
Strait of Hormuz control negotiations
- ▪Iranian officials state the proposed agreement includes a service fee to cover environmental impact, security, and staffing, with revenues split equally between Iran and Oman.
- ▪Iran and Oman are negotiating an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
- ▪Under the proposed Iran-Oman agreement, inbound vessels to the Persian Gulf would transit an Iranian-controlled channel, while outbound vessels would travel near Oman.
- ▪A United States official disputed the Iranian account of the negotiations, stating any temporary routes would not involve Iranian approvals, permissions, or tolls.
Iranian negotiating leverage
- ▪Iranian officials state the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports and both nations return to the Islamabad memorandum.
- ▪Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iran will target United States warships if they enter illegal routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- ▪Iran denies negotiating directly with the United States, stating its discussions are exclusively with Oman.
Trump administration internal divisions
- ▪United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that allowing Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge fees would set a dangerous precedent for other international waterways.
- ▪United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated there is a chance of a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz on August 4 or August 5, 2026.
- ▪Some senior Pentagon officials view the emerging Iran-Oman arrangement as capitulation, noting the Omani-side route remains heavily mined.
Midterm election pressures
- ▪President Donald Trump faces political pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to lower gas prices, which averaged $4.10 per gallon ahead of the November midterm elections.
- ▪The United States military has depleted nearly all of its Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles during the conflict.
- ▪A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only a third of Americans support the conflict with Iran, representing the lowest support level since the war began.
Freedom of navigation precedent
- ▪Former National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray warned that accepting unilateral tolls on major international passages is deeply destructive to commercial traffic and naval operations.
- ▪Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the rules underpinning 150 years of international trade are threatened by unilateral control of international waterways.
Military strikes escalation risks
- ▪The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on August 2, 2026.
- ▪President Donald Trump called off planned military strikes against Iran over the weekend of August 1-2, 2026, at the urging of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
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