Susan Collins faces competitive reelection race in Maine as state shifts politically

Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a tight reelection race in Maine against Democrat Troy Jackson, representing a key flip opportunity as Democrats seek four seats to regain control of the 53-47 U.S. Senate. Collins relies on her 95% earmark success rate as Appropriations chair and her bipartisan record, supported by former Senator Joe Manchin. However, she faces headwinds from Donald Trump's 32% approval rating in the state, her Supreme Court confirmation votes, and a scrutinised FBI bribery probe involving donor Navatek.

Collins securing federal relief for Maine

• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins secured an exemption for road salt from Donald Trump's Canadian tariffs during an October 2026 debate.
• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins announced in October 2026 that she persuaded the Trump administration to release $38 million in home heating assistance for Maine.

Collins' success securing federal earmarks

• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins submitted 496 solo project requests from fiscal years 2022 through 2026 and won 92% of them.
• ▪As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Republican Senator Susan Collins secured funding for 95% of her solo earmark requests in fiscal year 2026.

Donald Trump's standing in Maine

• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins stated in an October 2026 debate that President Donald Trump will not campaign in Maine.
• ▪A New York Times/Siena College poll in September 2026 showed President Donald Trump with an approval rating of 32 percent in Maine.

Maine's 2024 presidential election results

• ▪Maine is the only state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 where a Republican incumbent senator is on the ballot in the 2026 midterms.
• ▪Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won Maine by seven points in the 2024 election.

Troy Jackson's Democratic Senate candidacy

• ▪Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson reported raising $20.4 million with $4 million unspent as of September 30, 2026, compared to $24 million raised by Susan Collins.
• ▪If Democratic challenger Troy Jackson defeats Susan Collins in November 2026, he will be the first registered Democrat to win a Maine U.S. Senate seat since 1988.
• ▪Democratic opponent Troy Jackson was nominated for the Maine Senate seat after initial nominee Graham Platner withdrew following sexual assault allegations.

FBI investigation into Navatek campaign donors

• ▪The FBI public corruption investigation into federal contracts linked to Senator Susan Collins' campaign donors ended after Donald Trump took office.
• ▪Former Navatek head Martin Kao told the FBI that campaign donations to Senator Susan Collins were part of a deal for help winning federal Navy contracts.
• ▪Senator Susan Collins has denied wrongdoing regarding federal contracts awarded to campaign donors associated with Navatek.

Joe Manchin's support for Collins

• ▪Former Independent Senator Joe Manchin announced plans to campaign with Senator Susan Collins in Maine to counter claims that she is a Trump enabler.
• ▪Former Senator Joe Manchin highlighted Senator Susan Collins' sponsorship of the Electoral Count Act and bipartisan infrastructure law as proof of her independence.

Battle for Senate control

• ▪Democrats must gain at least four seats in the November 2026 midterm elections to overturn the 53-47 Republican majority in the U.S. Senate.
• ▪Voter frustration over rising prices and the war in Iran made several 2026 U.S. Senate contests surprisingly competitive.

Outside campaign spending

• ▪AdImpact estimates outside groups will spend $199 million total on the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race.
• ▪Republican outside groups are outspending Democratic groups in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race.