Ahead of the November 3, 2026 US midterm elections, early voting is underway with total ad spending exceeding $3.8 billion. Republicans hold slim majorities in the House (218-214) and Senate (53-47), but President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to 32% amid widespread voter dissatisfaction over inflation and economic issues. Democratic momentum is fueled by a sharp shift among Latino voters toward Democrats, though vote counting delays in states like California and Alaska may defer final results.
Early voting participation
- ▪Georgia voters set an early-voting turnout record on October 15, 2026, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
- ▪Early voting for the November 3, 2026 US midterm elections has been underway across states for weeks.
Campaign ad spending
- ▪As of October 12, 2026, a record $3.8 billion had been spent on aired political advertisements for the 2026 US midterm elections.
- ▪According to AdImpact, the highest political ad spending for the 2026 midterms occurred in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan.
- ▪Elon Musk spent approximately $366 million from campaign funds to support Republican candidates in the 2026 US midterm elections.
State legislative and gubernatorial races
- ▪According to Ballotpedia, Republicans hold 55% of state legislative seats nationwide heading into the 2026 midterms, compared to 43.8% held by Democrats.
- ▪The 2026 US midterm elections feature gubernatorial elections in 39 states alongside legislative contests in nearly every state.
Betting odds on congressional control
- ▪Offshore bookmakers Bovada and BetOnline posted odds in October 2026 favoring Democrats to win control of both the House and the Senate.
- ▪U.K. bookmaker William Hill reported odds on October 18, 2026 implying Democrats had a 94% chance to win the House and a 66% chance to win the Senate.
Latino voter preferences and outreach
- ▪In the 2024 presidential election exit polls, Donald Trump received 46% of the Latino vote while Democrat Kamala Harris received 51%.
- ▪An NBC News/Telemundo poll in October 2026 found 59% of Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress over 35% for Republicans, 27% approved of President Donald Trump's job performance, and 20% approved his handling of the cost of living.
- ▪In September 2026, Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida released a campaign advertisement warning President Donald Trump that aggressive immigration enforcement was alienating Hispanic voters.
Congressional balance of power
- ▪Heading into the November 3, 2026 midterms, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the US House of Representatives, requiring Democrats to net four seats to regain control.
- ▪Heading into the November 3, 2026 midterms, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, requiring Democrats to win a net gain of four seats for a majority.
- ▪Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York is poised to become Speaker of the House if Democrats win majority control in November 2026.
State Ballot Processing and counting
- ▪California's election results in November 2026 are expected to take days to determine due to a high volume of mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day requiring signature verification.
- ▪In the 2024 elections, Alaska took until November 20 to reach 95% of ballots counted in its single US House race.
- ▪California earmarked $40 million in 2026 to fund measures designed to accelerate the processing and counting of election ballots.
Impact of victory margins on race calls
- ▪Former Maricopa County clerk Stephen Richer stated that narrow margins of victory delay media race calls, exposing election workers to baseless online conspiracy theories.
- ▪Former Maricopa County election official Stephen Richer noted that Utah receives less scrutiny than Arizona or California because wide victory margins allow faster race calls.
Public opinion on Trump and national trajectory
- ▪An Economist/YouGov survey completed October 12, 2026 found that 48% of US respondents felt more pessimistic about their futures compared to ten years ago, while 23% felt more optimistic.
- ▪An Economist/YouGov survey from October 2026 showed 34% of respondents named the economy and inflation as the most critical national issue, with 67% disapproving of Donald Trump's inflation handling.
- ▪An Economist/YouGov poll conducted October 10-12, 2026 showed that 70% of US respondents felt national conditions were out of control and 66% felt the country was on the wrong track.
- ▪A September 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll found President Donald Trump's public approval rating fell to a career low of 32%.
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