The Texas Senate race has intensified as Attorney General Ken Paxton challenges incumbent John Cornyn in a contentious GOP primary, where Paxton leads in polls despite past scandals. This has sparked a heated Democratic primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico, as the party sees a chance to win a statewide seat for the first time since 1994. Both parties face electability concerns over their leading candidates.
Texas Senate GOP primary race
- ▪A University of Houston poll showed Ken Paxton leading the GOP primary with 38%, followed by John Cornyn at 31% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%
- ▪A primary runoff in May 2026 is likely if no Republican candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the March 3 primary
- ▪Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary
- ▪Allies of Senator John Cornyn have spent over $50 million on advertisements to support his campaign against Ken Paxton
Texas Senate Democratic primary race
- ▪During a January 24 debate, Jasmine Crockett said she would do "edgy things" to tap into the "rawness of this moment."
- ▪The 2026 Texas Senate Democratic primary features Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico
- ▪During a January 24 debate, James Talarico argued against "the same old politics of division" to win the November election
- ▪A University of Houston poll showed Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading State Rep. James Talarico by eight percentage points
- ▪James Talarico was publicly accused of calling former candidate Colin Allred a "mediocre Black man" in a private conversation
- ▪James Talarico stated the accusation was a mischaracterization, claiming he called Allred's campaigning style "mediocre," not his life or service
Ken Paxton controversies
- ▪The Texas Senate acquitted Attorney General Ken Paxton of all impeachment charges in 2023
- ▪In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives impeached Ken Paxton on charges that included bribery and abuse of public trust
- ▪Ken Paxton reached a legal agreement to have felony securities fraud charges against him dropped without an admission of guilt
Electability concerns both parties
- ▪A Democrat has not been elected to a statewide office in Texas since 1994
- ▪Both parties face a situation where their primary front-runners are considered potentially less competitive in the November general election
- ▪A recent special election in Texas saw a 31-point swing away from the Republican party, fueling some Democratic optimism
Trump endorsement speculation
- ▪A potential endorsement from Donald Trump in the race is described by strategists as a "seismic event."
- ▪As of early March 2026, former President Donald Trump had not endorsed any candidate in the Texas Republican Senate primary
- ▪Both Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt are viewed as "MAGA favorites" who are potential recipients of a Trump endorsement
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