Elevance Health raises 2026 profit forecast on lower medical costs

Elevance Health raised its 2026 adjusted profit forecast to at least $29 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $27.23, driven by a 90.6% medical loss ratio and a $1.85 per share gain from private holdings. Despite losing 487,000 overall medical members and winding down unprofitable Medicaid plans in Louisiana and Washington, D.C., Elevance maintained 1.3 million ACA plan members and projected 12% earnings growth for 2027.

Elevance Health updates financial forecasts and results

• ▪Elevance Health projected 2027 adjusted profit growth of at least 12% from a baseline of $26.75 per share
• ▪Shares of Elevance Health rose 1.7% in early trading on October 21, 2026 following the updated financial guidance raising its 2026 profit forecast
• ▪Elevance Health raised its 2026 full-year adjusted profit forecast to at least $29 per share, up from a previous outlook of at least $27 per share
• ▪Wall Street analysts had estimated Elevance Health's 2026 annual profit at an average of $27.23 per share, according to LSEG consensus data
• ▪Elevance Health reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted profit of $6.99 per share, which included a $1.85 per share non-operating benefit from private company holdings

Third-quarter performance and insurance driving factors

• ▪Elevance Health attributed lower third-quarter 2026 medical costs to improved performance in its Medicare Advantage and Affordable Care Act plans relative to the prior year
• ▪Elevance Health reported a third-quarter 2026 medical loss ratio of 90.6%, beating analyst expectations of 91.17%
• ▪Higher premium yields and service fees increased revenue for Elevance Health's insurance business by $1.1 billion year-over-year during the third quarter of 2026

Affordable Care Act subscriber trends and strategy

• ▪Chief Financial Officer Mark Kaye stated that subscriber retention in Elevance Health's Affordable Care Act plans was driven by consumers selecting cheaper bronze plans
• ▪Elevance Health maintained approximately flat membership of 1.3 million individual Affordable Care Act plan subscribers in 2026 despite overall market contraction

Medicaid challenges and membership declines

• ▪The United States Medicaid program faces nearly $1 trillion in federal funding cuts over the coming decade
• ▪Elevance Health's total medical membership declined by 487,000 year-over-year to 44.9 million as of September 30, 2026