Palantir raises full-year forecast after US commercial revenue surges 150%

Aug 3, 2026

Palantir raised its full-year forecast after reporting blowout second-quarter results that significantly beat estimates, causing its stock to surge 12%. The performance was driven by a 149% surge in U.S. commercial revenue to $764 million and 90% growth in government revenue. CEO Alex Karp described the commercial demand as "otherworldly" and projected the strong growth would continue for at least 18 months.

Second-quarter earnings results

▪Palantir's second-quarter revenue was $1.94 billion, surpassing the expected $1.80 billion.
▪The company's Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion represents a 93% increase from about $1 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
▪Following the earnings announcement on August 3, 2026, Palantir's stock surged 12%.
▪Palantir reported a Q2 net income of $1.07 billion, up from about $329 million in the year-ago quarter.
▪Palantir reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share, exceeding the 35 cents expected by LSEG estimates.

US commercial revenue growth

▪Since 2024, Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue has jumped 380% when accounting for compounding.
▪The company's remaining U.S. commercial deal value more than doubled from a year ago to $6.24 billion.
▪In the second quarter, Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million.
▪CEO Alex Karp described the commercial demand for Palantir's data analytics tools as "otherworldly."

Government revenue performance

▪Palantir's U.S. government revenue grew 90% from a year ago to $809 million in the second quarter.
▪Palantir is widely known for selling its software to the U.S. government and military.

Full-year guidance raise

▪CEO Alex Karp stated the company's strong growth "looks like this is going to go on for at least another 18 months."
▪The company's previous full-year revenue guidance was between $7.65 billion and $7.66 billion.
▪Prior to the earnings report, Palantir shares had lost 29% in 2026 amid concerns that the AI software trade was losing steam.
▪Palantir raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion.
▪Palantir increased its 2026 forecast for U.S. commercial revenue to "in excess of" $3.42 billion, up from $3.22 billion.

Open-weight AI models debate

▪Alex Karp stated that American open models must become as good as Chinese open models to win competitively.
▪CEO Alex Karp is a proponent of open-weight AI models to reduce reliance on token models from frontier labs.
▪In July 2026, Alex Karp and Palantir co-signed a letter urging the U.S. government not to restrict open-weight AI models.