A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations reveals European confidence in the U.S. has plummeted, with only 11% now viewing it as an ally—a historic low. This is attributed to President Trump's policies, leading majorities to doubt U.S. security guarantees. Consequently, support is rising for increased European defense spending and reduced reliance on U.S. military hardware.
US security guarantee confidence
- ▪The 11% figure represents a historic low, down from 16% six months prior and 22% in November 2024
- ▪Majorities in all 15 surveyed countries expressed doubts that the U.S. would come to their defense in the event of an attack
- ▪The survey was conducted in May 2026, polling 19,481 people aged 18 and over in 15 European nations
- ▪A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations found only 11% of Europeans across 15 countries view the United States as an ally
- ▪Half of respondents view the U.S. as a "necessary partner," while a combined 25% see it as a rival or adversary
Trump transatlantic policy impact
- ▪President Trump's actions, such as striking Iran without European input and planning U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe, were also cited as influences
- ▪Majorities in every polled country except Bulgaria believe U.S.-European relations would improve after President Donald Trump leaves office
- ▪The ECFR cited President Trump's threats to leave NATO and annex Greenland as likely reasons for the decline in confidence
European defense spending support
- ▪Italy was the only surveyed country where a clear majority remained opposed to increased national defense spending
- ▪Europeans were four percentage points more likely than in the previous year to support increased national defense spending
- ▪47% of respondents support collective EU borrowing to fund defense, with strong backing in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), and the Netherlands (55%)
- ▪Poland was the only country where a majority favored increased purchases of U.S. weapons
- ▪Most respondents advocated for reducing reliance on U.S. military hardware in favor of European alternatives
NATO versus EU defense
- ▪Most people, except in Bulgaria, believe "at least some European countries" would come to their aid in a crisis
- ▪There was little backing, at 29% of respondents, for replacing NATO with a new EU-only defense body
Russia energy import opposition
- ▪Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans opposed resuming oil and gas imports from Russia
Ukraine EU membership division
- ▪European opinion is divided on Ukraine joining the EU, with opposition stronger than support in countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, and Germany
- ▪Most respondents support Ukraine as an ally or strategic partner, but consensus weakens on sending peacekeeping troops or expanding the EU eastward
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