Explosives Discovered Near Russian Gas Pipeline in Serbia Ahead of Hungarian Election

Serbian authorities discovered two rucksacks full of explosives and detonators near the village of Tresnjevac, about 20 kilometers from where the TurkStream pipeline crosses into Hungary, one week before Hungary's national election. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose Fidesz party is badly trailing in polls after 16 years in power, convened an emergency National Defence Council meeting and blamed Ukraine for attempting an energy blockade. Hungarian security experts had warned days earlier of a possible false flag operation, and opposition leader Peter Magyar accused Orbán and Serbian President Alexander Vučić of staging the incident with Russian assistance to generate sympathy. Ukraine denied involvement and characterized the incident as Russian interference in Hungarian elections, while Orbán has made hostility to Ukraine and defending cheap Russian energy imports a cornerstone of his campaign despite EU pressure to abandon Russian fuel.

Discovery of explosives near TurkStream pipeline in Serbia

• ▪Viktor Orban convened an emergency meeting of the National Defence Council after explosives were found near the TurkStream pipeline
• ▪Serbian President Alexander Vucic informed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban of the explosives discovery on Sunday morning
• ▪The explosives were discovered about 20 kilometers from the point where the TurkStream pipeline crosses into Hungary

Allegations of false flag operation and election interference

• ▪Hungarian security expert Andras Racz warned on Facebook on April 2 that a fake attack on the TurkStream pipeline could be staged inside Serbia
• ▪Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyy stated that Ukraine has nothing to do with the explosives discovery
• ▪Peter Magyar accused Viktor Orban and Serbian President Alexander Vucic of staging the explosives incident
• ▪Hungarian security experts raised the possibility of a staged operation intended to arouse enough sympathy for Viktor Orban to help his Fidesz party win the election
• ▪Former senior Hungarian counter-intelligence officer Peter Buda stated that Hungary had solid preliminary information about the operation, including details about the place and possible timing
• ▪Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar accused Viktor Orban of panic-mongering orchestrated by Russian advisers

Hungary's dependence on Russian energy and political tensions

• ▪Viktor Orban has resisted EU calls to abandon Russian energy imports since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
• ▪Both Hungary and Slovakia depend on the TurkStream pipeline for Russian gas
• ▪Viktor Orban accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of imposing an oil blockade on Hungary
• ▪Ukraine says the Druzhba pipeline was damaged in a Russian attack and should be functional again in mid-April
• ▪No Russian oil has arrived to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline since the end of January

Competing narratives between Hungarian government and opposition

• ▪Peter Magyar stated that Viktor Orban will not be able to prevent the election scheduled for the following Sunday
• ▪Balint Pasztor posted that if Hungary's supply lines were the primary target, the terrorist attack was planned with the aim of bringing down Viktor Orban
• ▪Viktor Orban's Fidesz party is badly trailing in opinion polls ahead of elections scheduled for the following Sunday

Perspective of Viktor Orbán and Fidesz party

• ▪Viktor Orban accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of imposing an oil blockade on Hungary

Perspective of Hungarian opposition led by Peter Magyar

• ▪Peter Magyar accused Viktor Orban and Serbian President Alexander Vucic of staging the explosives incident
• ▪Peter Magyar stated that Viktor Orban will not be able to prevent the election scheduled for the following Sunday
• ▪Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar accused Viktor Orban of panic-mongering orchestrated by Russian advisers

Perspective of Ukrainian government

• ▪Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyy stated that Ukraine has nothing to do with the explosives discovery

Perspective of Hungarian security experts

• ▪Balint Pasztor posted that if Hungary's supply lines were the primary target, the terrorist attack was planned with the aim of bringing down Viktor Orban
• ▪Hungarian security experts raised the possibility of a staged operation intended to arouse enough sympathy for Viktor Orban to help his Fidesz party win the election
• ▪Former senior Hungarian counter-intelligence officer Peter Buda stated that Hungary had solid preliminary information about the operation, including details about the place and possible timing
• ▪Hungarian security expert Andras Racz warned on Facebook on April 2 that a fake attack on the TurkStream pipeline could be staged inside Serbia