Democrats gain midterm advantage as Trump faces blame for gas prices and Iran war concerns, despite GOP redistricting wins

May 6, 2026

Democrats have gained a 10-point advantage for the 2026 midterms as President Trump's approval rating hits a record low of 37%. A new poll shows a majority of voters blame Trump for surging gas prices and disapprove of the war in Iran. While Republicans have secured key redistricting victories in court, the GOP's traditional edge on the economy has evaporated, giving Democrats an edge in voter enthusiasm six months before the election.

Trump approval ratings decline

▪President Trump's approval for handling the economy is 35%, which is tied for his worst mark in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
▪An NPR/PBS/Marist poll found President Trump's job approval at 37%, with 59% disapproving, his highest disapproval rating ever in the poll.
▪In the same poll, 51% of respondents strongly disapprove of President Trump, tying his worst-ever rating.

Gas prices household strain

▪An NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 81% of Americans say current gas prices are a strain on their household budget.
▪The national average gas price surged to $4.48 a gallon as of May 5, up from below $3 before the war in Iran.
▪By a 63%-37% margin, respondents in a poll blame President Trump for the current increase in gas prices.

Iran war unpopularity

▪The war in Iran has been cited as a direct cause of higher gas prices.
▪A poll found 61% of respondents believe military action in Iran has done more harm than good.
▪President Trump's approval for his handling of the Iran situation has dipped to 33%.

Economic concerns AI jobs

▪An NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 63% of respondents said the economy is not working well for them personally, the worst recorded in that survey.
▪A recent poll found that 8 in 10 people believe AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates, an increase of 12 points from the previous year.
▪Multiple polls, including from NBC News and Fox News, show the Republican party's long-held advantage on the economy has evaporated.

Democratic midterm advantage

▪The Virginia Supreme Court blocked a gerrymandered map that could have netted Democrats up to four House seats.
▪Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% on a generic congressional ballot test, according to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
▪Despite recent court decisions favoring Republicans in redistricting, Democrats are still "favored" to win back the House, according to The Cook Political Report.
▪A U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting the use of race in redistricting may allow Southern states to eliminate some Democratic-held districts.

Voter turnout enthusiasm gaps

▪There is a 14-point enthusiasm gap between people who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 (61%) and those who voted for Donald Trump (47%).
▪Democrats hold an 8-point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans, with 61% of Democrats saying they are "very enthusiastic" to vote compared to 53% of Republicans.
▪Voter groups with low enthusiasm include those aged 18-29 (34%), Black voters (39%), and Latinos (42%).