South Dakota GOP Governor Primary Heads to Runoff as Doeden Leads, Rhoden Advances, Johnson Falls Short

South Dakota's GOP gubernatorial primary is heading to a July 28 runoff after no candidate won 35% of the vote. Businessman Toby Doeden, a self-proclaimed Trump ally, finished first with 31%, while incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden took second with 25%. U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, an early favorite, was eliminated. The race, triggered by former Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation, featured attacks on Johnson's voting record and over $10 million in spending.

GOP governor primary runoff trigger

• ▪The winner of the GOP runoff will face Democrat Dan Ahlers in the general election, and the Republican nominee is heavily favored to win
• ▪Businessman Toby Doeden finished first with approximately 31% of the vote, while incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden secured second place with 25%
• ▪South Dakota's GOP gubernatorial primary is heading to a runoff because no candidate secured the required 35% of the vote
• ▪U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson finished third with 23% of the vote, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen finished fourth with 21%
• ▪This is the first gubernatorial primary in South Dakota to require a runoff since the state's runoff law was passed in 1985
• ▪The runoff election between top finishers Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden is scheduled for July 28

Noem resignation succession process

• ▪Following Kristi Noem's resignation, then-Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden was elevated to governor to complete her term
• ▪The primary was triggered by former Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation in January 2025 to lead the Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration

Johnson congressional voting record

• ▪Rep. Dusty Johnson was one of 13 House Republicans who voted to block President Trump's 2019 emergency declaration for the southern U.S. border
• ▪Dusty Johnson also voted to certify the 2020 presidential election results
• ▪Dusty Johnson's loss means he will leave his U.S. House seat in January, as he ran for governor instead of seeking re-election

Trump loyalty campaign attacks

• ▪Toby Doeden positioned himself as a "total political outsider" and one of President Trump's "fiercest supporters."
• ▪Opponents, including Larry Rhoden's campaign and a PAC linked to Toby Doeden, attacked Dusty Johnson's voting record as not being supportive of Trump
• ▪President Donald Trump did not make an endorsement in the South Dakota gubernatorial primary

Property tax elimination proposals

• ▪Dusty Johnson's campaign ads criticized Larry Rhoden and Jon Hansen for sales tax increases but did not mention the corresponding property tax cuts
• ▪Toby Doeden campaigned on a promise to phase out property taxes, a plan that opponents criticized as vague
• ▪Gov. Larry Rhoden signed laws using revenue from sales tax increases to fund homeowner property tax reductions

Campaign finance spending totals

• ▪Total spending by the four primary campaigns surpassed $10 million, with over $1 million spent by political action committees
• ▪Toby Doeden, a vehicle dealership owner, contributed at least $4 million of his own money to his campaign