Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz drops sharply amid tensions

Aug 20, 2026

Visible shipping traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to single digits, with only seven commodity vessels transiting on August 20, 2026, amid a collapsed U.S.-Iran peace framework. While President Donald Trump asserts U.S. military control, commercial operators are increasingly turning off transponders to evade missile attacks, creating massive data gaps. This militarization has fractured the waterway into competing Iranian and Omani routes, driving Brent crude prices above $93 per barrel.

Hormuz shipping traffic decline

▪Commodity ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell to 23 vessels on August 20, 2026, compared to 34 vessels on each of the previous two days.
▪The seven commodity ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on August 20, 2026, consisted of four entering and three exiting vessels, with none being very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers.
▪On August 20, 2026, only seven commodity ships sailed along the Strait of Hormuz, representing half of the previous day's tally, according to data from shiptracker Kpler.

US-Iran control dispute

▪The bilateral Memorandum of Understanding signed between the United States and Iran on June 17, 2026, expired around August 17, 2026, amid disputes over whether it recognized Iran's administrative role.
▪United States President Donald Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz was open for transit and suggested the United States military remains in control of the waterway, even proposing the U.S. might seek charge of the territory.
▪Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all vessels that do not seek prior approval from Tehran before transit.
▪United States President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman to dissuade Muscat from striking a joint management deal for the Strait of Hormuz with Tehran.

Iranian route usage patterns

▪Out of 236 total transiting vessels tracked between August 1 and August 19, 2026, 83 ships openly used the Iranian route through the Strait of Hormuz.
▪Between August 1 and August 19, 2026, 21 out of 112 tracked oil and gas tankers openly used the northern, Iranian route through the Strait of Hormuz.

Omani route usage patterns

▪Kpler data indicates that over 80 percent of active liquids traffic shifted to the Omani-side route or dark transits during the first two weeks of August 2026, compared to almost none a month prior.
▪Between August 1 and August 19, 2026, only two oil and gas tankers formally and openly used the southern, Omani route through the Strait of Hormuz.

AIS transponder data gaps

▪Between August 1 and August 19, 2026, 89 out of 112 oil and gas tankers, and 148 out of 236 total vessels, transited the Strait of Hormuz using dark or unclassified routes.
▪Commercial vessel operators are turning off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid digital targeting by United States and Iranian military forces.

Energy corridor geopolitical fragmentation

▪The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company stated that 15 of its vessels have been attacked by missiles and drones in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, resulting in one death and 20 injuries.
▪The price of Brent crude oil stood at $92.9 per barrel on August 20, 2026, and reached $93.75 per barrel on August 21, 2026, amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
▪The Policy Centre for the New South stated that the partial closure and militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates that the equilibrium of shared understanding to keep maritime chokepoints operational no longer holds.