The Trump administration has refunded $81 billion in customs duties in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026 after the Supreme Court struck down its global tariff policy in a 6-3 decision. The massive payouts, including $49.2 billion in June alone, have pushed the monthly federal budget deficit to $120 billion. While the refunds provide an accidental stimulus to companies like Walmart and PepsiCo, the administration is already preparing a replacement tariff policy of 10 to 12.5 percent.
Supreme Court tariff ruling
- ▪The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump's tariffs were imposed using an overly expansive reading of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act
- ▪Chief Justice John Roberts and conservative Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett joined their liberal colleagues in the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision of February 20, 2026, against the tariff policy.
- ▪The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in February 2026 that the majority of President Donald Trump's global tariffs were unlawful
Tariff refunds totaling $81 billion
- ▪The Cato Institute calculated that the U.S. government still owes approximately $100.7 billion to importers who originally paid the invalidated tariffs
- ▪The Donald Trump administration has refunded $81 billion in customs duties for the first nine months of the fiscal year beginning October 2025
- ▪The U.S. government paid out $49.2 billion in tariff rebates in June 2026 alone, compared to $5 billion in refunded duties for the same period the prior year
Trump Liberation Day policy
- ▪President Donald Trump unveiled a suite of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, 2025, a date he named 'Liberation Day,' placing a blanket 10 percent duty on most global imports
- ▪Approximately 330,000 importers paid around $166 billion in the tariff duties that were subsequently invalidated by the Supreme Court
Economic deficit growth
- ▪The $49.2 billion in tariff rebates paid in June 2026 helped push the monthly federal budget deficit to $120 billion
- ▪The U.S. federal budget deficit grew by 2 percent to $1.367 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026.
Market turmoil policy suspension
- ▪The tariff policy was subsequently reintroduced, after a prolonged delay, with major modifications
- ▪President Donald Trump suspended his reciprocal tariff policy one week after its April 2, 2025 launch due to severe market turmoil
Future tariff replacement plans
- ▪The Trump administration's temporary 10 percent global tariff is scheduled to expire on July 24, 2026
- ▪The White House is preparing a replacement tariff policy expected to be between 10 and 12.5 percent, targeting countries including the United Kingdom, Japan, India, Taiwan, and China
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