JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time, projecting a 10% annual compound return over a 10- to 15-year horizon. The forecast places Bitcoin ahead of U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. However, the bank assigned Bitcoin a high annualized volatility of 55% and excluded it from main sample portfolio allocations due to unstable market correlations.
JPMorgan projections for Bitcoin returns
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management estimated Bitcoin's annualized arithmetic average return at 20.9% over a 10- to 15-year long-term planning horizon
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time, projecting a 10% annual compound return over a 10- to 15-year horizon
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management projected a bear case of -9.7% to -11.2% annual loss and a bull case of 16.6% to 17% annual gain for Bitcoin over the next decade
JPMorgan projections for traditional assets
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management projected 10- to 15-year annual returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for REITs, 7.7% for U.S. small-cap stocks, and 5.5% for gold
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management projected U.S. bonds to return 5.6% to 6.6% annually and a standard 60/40 equity-bond portfolio to return 7% annually over the long-term horizon
JPMorgan's assessment of Bitcoin in portfolios
- ▪JPMorgan Asset Management excluded Bitcoin from the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report's main portfolio covariance matrices and sample allocations due to its volatility and unstable correlations with traditional assets
- ▪JPMorgan portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo described Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing rather than a portfolio diversifier
Jamie Dimon's statements on bitcoin
- ▪JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated in 2024 that he would defend the right of people to buy Bitcoin
- ▪JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon historically criticized Bitcoin, calling it a 'fraud' in 2017 and comparing it to a 'pet rock' in 2024
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