A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey shows Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson leading Republican Representative Scott Perry by 49% to 46% in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District rematch. Perry's close alignment with President Donald Trump and involvement in challenging the 2020 election results present political vulnerabilities, while national political forecasters like VoteHub project potential Democratic House pickups across Trump-won districts.
PA-10 Polling and win probabilities
- ▪Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ gave Democrat Janelle Stelson a 69 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District seat against Republican incumbent Scott Perry.
- ▪A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted October 5-11, 2026 showed Democrat Janelle Stelson leading Republican incumbent Scott Perry 49% to 46% in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District.
Perry and Stelson campaign developments
- ▪The Department of Homeland Security issued a public statement criticizing Janelle Stelson after arresting an undocumented Nigerian man alleged to work for her campaign.
- ▪Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson and Republican Representative Scott Perry participated in their single election debate covering the Iran war, healthcare, and the 2020 presidential election aftermath.
PA-10 candidate campaign arguments
- ▪Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson positioned her campaign around fiscal conservatism and border security while accusing Republican Representative Scott Perry of inflating regional cost-of-living pressures.
- ▪Representative Scott Perry highlighted his votes against a $1.2 trillion spending plan and Chinese student visa proposals as evidence of voting independently from Donald Trump.
2024 election performance in PA-10
- ▪Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District by 5 percentage points over Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
- ▪In the 2024 election, Republican incumbent Scott Perry defeated Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District by slightly more than 1 percentage point, or roughly 5,000 votes.
Pennsylvania battleground House districts
- ▪Political forecaster VoteHub projected Democratic candidates Bob Brooks, Paige Cognetti, and Janelle Stelson to win competitive House races in Pennsylvania's 7th, 8th, and 10th districts.
- ▪Democrats narrowly lost Pennsylvania's 7th, 8th, and 10th Congressional Districts in the 2024 election.
Projections for Democratic pickups in Trump states
- ▪Political scientist Daniel Schatz observed that 15 projected Democratic pickups in Trump-won states demonstrate an expanded defensive battlefield for Republicans.
- ▪Political forecaster VoteHub projected Democratic candidates to win 15 House seats across states carried by Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
VoteHub forecasts on House Control
- ▪VoteHub head of data science Zachary Donnini stated that President Donald Trump's low voter popularity is the primary factor driving favorable generic congressional polling for Democrats.
- ▪Political forecaster VoteHub gave Democrats an 84 percent probability of capturing control of the House of Representatives in its October 14, 2026 projection update.
National popular vote and swing estimates
- ▪Harvard Law Professor Nicholas Stephanopoulos stated that an 8-point national popular vote win for Democrats would overcome Republican congressional gerrymandering to secure a House majority.
- ▪Sabato's Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik projected a national swing toward Democrats of approximately 10 percentage points relative to the 2024 election.
Scott Perry's record in Congress
- ▪Representative Scott Perry voted against certifying Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Pennsylvania, resulting in federal authorities seizing Perry's personal cellphone during the January 6 Capitol investigation.
- ▪Republican Representative Scott Perry served as leader of the House Freedom Caucus in 2022 and 2023 during high-profile House speakership contests.
Story comments
Loading comments…