Houthis seize strategic Red Sea islands, raising fears of global oil supply crisis

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have seized the strategic Red Sea islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish, tightening their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This advance, combined with a drone attack that shut down Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, has triggered fears of a global energy crisis, pushing Brent crude to $106.92 a barrel. Meanwhile, escalating ground clashes have killed hundreds and displaced nearly 94,000 Yemenis, forcing thousands to flee to Djibouti.

Houthi Red Sea island seizures

• ▪The Houthi seizure of the Hanish islands followed their capture of the Red Sea port city of Mokha and Mayun Island inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
• ▪Yemeni government forces withdrew from the Hanish archipelago prior to the deployment of Houthi rebel forces on the islands
• ▪The Houthi advance puts the rebel forces within 32 kilometers of a United States military base located in Djibouti
• ▪Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized the strategic islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish in the southern Red Sea, located 160 kilometers north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz closure

• ▪Saudi Arabia requested the postponement of an Oman-hosted regional meeting with Iran intended to discuss security in the Strait of Hormuz
• ▪Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in the opening days of its war with the United States and Israel, which began on February 28, 2026
• ▪Saudi Arabia submitted amendments to a finalized security agreement between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, citing concerns over lasting regional implications

Saudi oil pipeline damage

• ▪Saudi Arabia shut down its 1,200-kilometer East-West Pipeline following a September 10, 2026 drone attack blamed on Iran-aligned Iraqi militias
• ▪Repairs to the damaged Saudi East-West Pipeline and its major pumping facility are estimated to take three to five weeks
• ▪The Saudi East-West Pipeline carried an average of 2.6 million to 4 million barrels of crude oil per day from late August 2026 until the shutdown

Global oil supply crisis

• ▪Brent crude oil prices rose 1.17 percent to $106.92 a barrel on September 15, 2026, amid escalating Middle East shipping and pipeline disruptions
• ▪Saudi Arabian oil production fell to 6 million barrels per day in August 2026, down from nearly 10 million barrels per day in September 2025
• ▪The average United States diesel price surpassed $6 a gallon for the first time in September 2026, driven by the war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries

Yemeni refugee displacement

• ▪More than 2,000 Yemeni refugees have fled across the sea into Djibouti, arriving in the coastal city of Obock
• ▪The World Health Organization reported that over 500 people were killed in Yemen during a single week ending September 12, 2026
• ▪Approximately 200 schools in southwestern Yemen have been converted into temporary shelters to house families displaced by the conflict
• ▪Nearly 94,000 people have fled their homes in Yemen since fighting between Houthi rebels and government forces escalated in September 2026

Debatable claims

• ▪Saudi Arabia should proceed with the Oman-hosted security talks with Iran
• ▪The European Union should expand the military mandate of Operation Atalanta
• ▪Egypt should militarily intervene to secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait