Bitcoin Surges Above $65,000 After Unexpected U.S. Jobs Decline Reduces Rate Hike Expectations

Bitcoin surged past $65,000 on August 7, 2026, following an unexpected U.S. jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 payrolls in July, far below the expected 80,000 gain. The weak data, alongside downward revisions to June's figures, prompted traders to scale back expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME hike odds dropping to 40%. The rally was further bolstered by $750 million in weekly spot ETF inflows and active accumulation by large Bitcoin holders.

U.S. July jobs report surprise

• ▪The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June 2026 payroll figures downward from an initially reported 57,000 gain to a 20,000 gain.
• ▪The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in July 2026, though analysts noted this was partly driven by a shrinking labor force.
• ▪The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July 2026, missing economists' expectations of an 80,000 to 95,000 gain.

Bitcoin price movement above $65,000

• ▪Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated more than 20,000 BTC, worth over $1.2 billion, since late July 2026.
• ▪Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on August 7, 2026, reaching an intraday high of $65,340 following the release of the weak U.S. jobs report.
• ▪Bitcoin's price increase broke it out of the $62,000 to $65,000 trading range that had held the cryptocurrency for several weeks.

Federal Reserve rate hike expectations

• ▪The unexpected July 2026 payroll decline caused the CME FedWatch probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to fall to 40% from 55% a day earlier.
• ▪Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that she would support a rate hike if inflation fails to improve, noting the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.

Bitcoin ETF institutional flows

• ▪U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $128 million inflow on Thursday, August 6, 2026, reversing a prior period of net outflows.
• ▪U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $750 million in inflows during the first week of August 2026, on pace for their best week since April.

Strait of Hormuz negotiations

• ▪The potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced energy shock concerns, supporting investor appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
• ▪Negotiations involving Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz continued in early August 2026, raising hopes for a partial reopening of the key oil shipping waterway.