Netanyahu shifts campaign focus to Turkey as Israeli election polls show Likud trailing

Aug 17, 2026

Faced with a severe polling slump ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pivoted his campaign toward Turkey. Following an August 18 airstrike near the Turkish border in northern Syria, Netanyahu's Likud party launched aggressive billboards targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This shift comes as polls project Likud to lose its majority and Netanyahu faces intense domestic pressure from far-right coalition partners like Itamar Ben-Gvir to resist US-led ceasefires.

Netanyahu anti-Turkey campaign strategy

▪Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party campaign billboards in Tel Aviv feature Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani with the caption 'They want Netanyahu to lose.'
▪Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shifted his election campaign focus to anti-Turkey rhetoric and billboards featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the October 27, 2026 election.
▪Israeli political analyst Esther Solomon stated that Benjamin Netanyahu is using multiple security fronts to overwhelm the opposition and build momentum as his party trails in the polls.
▪Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli stated in June 2026 that Israel would eventually enter a war with Syria, describing Turkey and Syria as far more disturbing developments than Iran.
▪Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated in July 2026 that if Turkey establishes a military base in Syria, Israel will establish one as well.

Likud polling decline

▪An Israeli Channel 13 opinion poll published on August 19, 2026, projected Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition to win 51 seats, falling short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.
▪Israeli opinion polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 election show Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party projected to fall from 32 seats to 23 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

Israeli strikes northern Syria

▪Israeli warplanes bombed the inactive Abu al-Duhur military air base in Syria's Idlib province near the Turkish border on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.
▪Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the August 18, 2026 airstrike in northern Syria was launched because Turkey ignored warnings and sought to establish a military presence there.
▪Israeli Democrats party leader Yair Golan criticized the August 18, 2026 airstrike in Syria as provocative and dangerous, warning it risks a direct confrontation with Turkey.

Coalition pressure on Netanyahu

▪Israeli opposition figures Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman criticized Benjamin Netanyahu for succumbing to United States pressure to end military operations in Iran and Lebanon.
▪Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir publicly urged Benjamin Netanyahu to reject US President Donald Trump's demands for calm and ceasefires.

US-Israel ceasefire tensions

▪United States envoy Jared Kushner held a three-hour meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu on August 17, 2026, to discuss stalling Gaza ceasefire negotiations, which ended without a breakthrough.
▪The United States government pressured Israel to halt its military campaigns against Iran and Lebanon, leading to domestic political backlash against Benjamin Netanyahu.

Turkey NATO membership complications

▪Middle East Institute fellow Gonul Tol stated that further Israeli military action against NATO-member Turkey risks making Benjamin Netanyahu look reckless and losing the support of US President Donald Trump.
▪The United States Ambassador to Ankara condemned the August 18, 2026 Israeli airstrikes in northern Syria near the Turkish border.