OpenAI's annualized revenue reported at $50 billion, $20 billion below previous estimates

OpenAI has informed investors that its annualized revenue is approaching $50 billion, revealing a $20 billion gap from the $68 billion to $70 billion figures previously reported in the media. This discrepancy stems from differing accounting methods, as rival Anthropic includes gross cloud partner sales while OpenAI reports net figures. The news has rattled public markets, causing tech stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave to tumble as both AI giants prepare for highly anticipated initial public offerings.

OpenAI's third-quarter revenue performance

• ▪OpenAI recently informed investors that its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September 2026
• ▪OpenAI's $50 billion annualized revenue figure is approximately $20 billion less than the $68 billion to $70 billion figures widely reported by media outlets in late August and September 2026
• ▪OpenAI reported a 77% growth in its total annual revenue run rate and a 107% growth in its enterprise business run rate during the third quarter of 2026

Revenue calculation differences with Anthropic

• ▪According to accounting professor Francine McKenna, Anthropic's GAAP-compliant method records the full customer payment through cloud partners like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as top-line revenue, while OpenAI records only its share of certain partner sales
• ▪The $20 billion discrepancy in OpenAI's annualized revenue arose from attempts by OpenAI investors to produce a direct comparison with rival Anthropic by calculating a "grossed up" revenue figure

Market reaction to OpenAI's revenue report

• ▪On October 8, 2026, shares of Oracle fell 5.5%, Intel fell 5.3%, Nvidia fell 2.9%, and CoreWeave dropped 8% following reports of OpenAI's lower annualized revenue
• ▪Following the Financial Times report on OpenAI's revenue gap on October 8, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 index closed down 1.4% and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%

Anthropic's valuation and financial performance

• ▪Bloomberg reported in August 2026 that Anthropic was on track to generate an annualized revenue of more than $65 billion
• ▪Anthropic is reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation and targeting an initial public offering as early as November 9, 2026

OpenAI's valuation and IPO plans

• ▪OpenAI is in early-stage discussions with investors about a potential new funding round to raise around $30 billion, following a $122 billion funding round closed in March 2026
• ▪OpenAI confidentially filed its prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2026 and has signaled a delayed IPO debut target of 2027
• ▪OpenAI is facing pressure to justify its $852 billion valuation as it prepares for an initial public offering

Debatable claims

• ▪OpenAI's $852 billion valuation is justified
• ▪Annualized revenue run rate is a misleading metric for evaluating AI startups
• ▪Recording gross partner sales as top-line revenue is misleading for AI companies
• ▪The stock market decline following OpenAI's revenue report was an overreaction