A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll released three weeks before Election Day 2026 shows Democrats holding a 49 to 42 percent lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. DDHQ forecasts give Democrats a 76 percent chance of winning the House and a 56 percent chance of taking the Senate. Voters identified inflation, economy, and immigration as top priorities, while President Donald Trump registered a 38 percent favorability rating amid bipartisan backlash over a diesel deal with Russia.
Poll shows Democratic advantage
- ▪A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll conducted between October 5 and October 9, 2026, showed Democrats leading Republicans 49 percent to 42 percent on the generic congressional ballot, with 8 percent of likely voters undecided
- ▪When asked which party had done more to earn their vote, 46 percent of likely voters in the October 2026 NewsNation/DDHQ poll selected the Democratic Party, compared to 40 percent for the Republican Party, 7 percent for independents, and 8 percent for none of the above
Forecasts for congressional control
- ▪Decision Desk HQ estimated that Democrats have a 56 percent chance of flipping the U.S. Senate in November 2026, compared to a 44 percent chance for Republicans to hold the chamber
- ▪Decision Desk HQ forecasted that Democrats have a 76 percent probability of winning back control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2026, compared to a 24 percent probability for Republicans
Backlash over Trump diesel deal
- ▪President Donald Trump recently reached an agreement with Russia to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets, generating bipartisan backlash
- ▪Decision Desk HQ analyst Geoffrey Skelley expressed skepticism that President Donald Trump's 300,000-ton diesel deal with Russia would influence voters before the November 2026 congressional elections due to negative public sentiment regarding Russia
Debatable claims
- ▪Importing Russian diesel is justified to lower domestic fuel costs
- ▪The Democratic Party has done more than the GOP to earn voter support
- ▪Trump's low approval rating is the main cause of Republican struggles in congressional polling
- ▪Inflation is the primary driver of voter choice in the 2026 midterms
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