Studies show youth suicide attempts rose during pandemic, smartphone data may predict future risk

A global study led by the University of Calgary reveals that pediatric emergency department visits for youth suicide attempts rose by 22% during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by isolation, school closures, and parental distress. Meanwhile, a Harvard University study demonstrates that frequent smartphone check-ins can predict 75% of suicide attempts a week in advance, identifying agitation as a critical near-term warning sign. These findings highlight both the severe toll of the pandemic on youth mental health and the potential of digital tools to forecast and prevent crises.

Youth suicide attempt increases

• ▪The University of Calgary-led study analyzed over 11 million pediatric emergency department visits across 18 countries, comparing pre-pandemic visits to visits up to July 2021
• ▪A study led by the University of Calgary found that pediatric emergency department visits for suicide attempts among youth under 18 increased by 22 percent globally during the COVID-19 pandemic
• ▪The University of Calgary-led study found that girls were considerably more likely than boys to visit emergency departments for severe mental distress during the COVID-19 pandemic
• ▪Data compiled by the Centre for Suicide Prevention showed that overall suicide deaths in Alberta decreased to 580 in 2021, from 615 in 2020 and 604 in 2019

Pandemic isolation effects

• ▪Clinical psychologist Sheri Madigan identified greater family violence and increased anxiety and depression among parents as factors contributing to youth mental distress during the COVID-19 pandemic
• ▪Robert Olson of the Centre for Suicide Prevention stated that adolescents susceptible to mental health issues became more vulnerable during lockdowns due to isolation from peers and normal activities
• ▪Clinical psychologist Sheri Madigan stated that pulling children out of schools and social circles during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased physical activity and increased screen times, worsening mental health

Emergency department capacity challenges

• ▪The Alberta government promised 92 million dollars in funding for youth mental health in its 2023 budget to expand day treatment programs and fund inpatient CASA House sites
• ▪Dr. Stephen Freedman stated that emergency department visits from children with mental health concerns were very low at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic but dramatically increased as it progressed
• ▪Dr. Stephen Freedman of the Alberta Children's Hospital stated that the hospital continues to face challenges finding sufficient resources for beds in the emergency department for children with acute mental health concerns

Smartphone-based suicide risk prediction

• ▪A study by Harvard University researchers found that frequent smartphone check-ins predicted 75 percent of suicide attempts and 87 percent of suicide-related events in the week before they occurred
• ▪The Harvard University study found that agitation was a strong predictor of near-term suicide risk, with each one-point increase in agitation associated with an 11 percent increase in attempt odds
• ▪The Harvard University study followed 619 adults and adolescents who sought care for suicidal thoughts or behavior at two Boston-area hospitals, administering surveys six times daily for three months
• ▪The Harvard University study found that while participants completed fewer than half of the sent surveys, those who did not respond had an increased risk of suicide attempts
• ▪Dr. Katherine Musacchio Schafer of Vanderbilt University Medical Center noted that health systems must establish immediate actionable steps for clinicians receiving high-risk alerts from predictive models

Pre-pandemic mental health warnings

• ▪Clinical psychologist Sheri Madigan co-authored a study warning that youth were experiencing double the depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels
• ▪Physicians at Alberta Children's Hospital reported an unprecedented number of children visiting the emergency department in 2021 for serious mental health concerns, including anxiety, depression, and suicidal ideation

Debatable claims

• ▪Governments should prioritize funding school-based mental health services over hospital psychiatric beds
• ▪AI should be used to predict patient suicide risk in healthcare settings
• ▪Governments should prioritize keeping schools open during pandemics to protect youth mental health