Brazil hosts a high-stakes presidential runoff election on October 25, 2026, pitting 80-year-old incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against 45-year-old conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro led the October 4 first round with 47 percent of votes over Lula's 45 percent, winning by over 2.2 million votes. Pre-election polling shows a tight race, with Bolsonaro holding a slight edge across major surveys. The outcome will decide if Brazil remains a leftist stronghold or joins regional neighbors shifting toward right-wing leadership.
Runoff match-up and final campaign events
- ▪In their final live television debate ahead of Brazil's presidential runoff on October 23, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized Flávio Bolsonaro's lack of experience while Bolsonaro accused Lula of leaving behind a broken country
- ▪Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro face off in a presidential runoff election in Brazil on October 25, 2026
- ▪On October 24, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro held final campaign rallies in Rio de Janeiro ahead of Brazil's October 25, 2026 presidential runoff
Final opinion polls ahead of the runoff
- ▪A Datafolha survey from October 23-24, 2026 showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 48 percent to 47 percent
- ▪An AtlasIntel and Bloomberg poll released on October 24, 2026 showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 49.9 percent to 48.4 percent
- ▪A Quaest poll conducted October 23-24, 2026 placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 46 percent and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45 percent
Policy actions by Lula's administration before the runoff
- ▪Ahead of Brazil's October 25, 2026 presidential runoff, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cut fuel taxes and pardoned the government debts of 3.6 million small businesses to shore up voter support
- ▪Ahead of Brazil's October 2026 presidential runoff, the Brazilian Senate approved administration-backed rules to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without salary cuts
Flávio Bolsonaro's key campaign promises
- ▪Flávio Bolsonaro promised to fight for the release of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence under house arrest for plotting a coup
- ▪Flávio Bolsonaro pledged a militarised approach to combat organised crime, including building El Salvador-style megaprisons, creating 500,000 prison spots, and trying 16-year-old defendants as adults
- ▪Flávio Bolsonaro promised to implement a debt ceiling, slash government spending, restore tax cuts for the events sector, and seek a constitutional reform
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's background and record
- ▪Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's approval ratings fell as low as 24 percent during his third term, which began in 2023, due to voter concerns regarding crime, household indebtedness, and the cost of living
- ▪Eighty-year-old Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, serving as Brazil's 35th and 39th president, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in the October 2026 runoff election
- ▪Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spent over a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled before he won a third presidential term in 2022
First-round election results and voter turnout
- ▪More than 33 million voters, representing 21 percent of the Brazilian electorate, did not vote in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on October 4, 2026
- ▪In the October 4, 2026 first-round presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro defeated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by over 2.2 million votes, securing 47 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent
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