Bitcoin consolidates near $64,000 for two months despite strong ETF inflows and Wall Street gains

Bitcoin is consolidating near $64,000, down 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,198. Despite $211.5 million in ETF inflows on August 4, 2026, and record highs for the S&P 500, BTC remains stagnant. Analysts point to record ETF outflows of 65,800 BTC in June and a multi-month negative Coinbase Premium as signs of weak demand. However, on-chain metrics like Glassnode's Seller Exhaustion Constant and a 155,000 BTC cost-basis cluster suggest a market bottom is forming through investor boredom.

Bitcoin price decline

• ▪Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on August 4, 2026, representing a decline of approximately 49% to 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.
• ▪Bitcoin's price remained flat near $64,000 on August 4, 2026, lagging the S&P 500 index by more than four percentage points as global stock markets reached record highs.

ETF outflows

• ▪Citi estimated that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced nearly $3.3 billion in net capital outflows during the first half of 2026.
• ▪U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $61.53 million during the week ending July 31, 2026, which included a single-day withdrawal of $265.4 million on July 31.
• ▪U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of approximately 65,800 BTC in June 2026, marking the largest monthly net outflow on record for these funds.

Institutional demand weakness

• ▪The Coinbase Premium, measuring the price difference between Coinbase's and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs, remained negative for nearly 80 consecutive days leading up to August 4, 2026.
• ▪Daily crypto trading volume across 44 spot exchanges tracked by Kaiko fell to $15 billion during the week ending August 2, 2026, representing the lowest level of the year.

Market bottom indicators

• ▪As of August 2, 2026, 54.6% of the total Bitcoin supply was in profit, leaving the average holder effectively at a breakeven position.
• ▪Glassnode's Seller Exhaustion Constant reached its lowest level of the current cycle by August 5, 2026, entering a historical zone where prior market bottoms have formed.
• ▪Approximately 155,000 BTC accumulated in the $62,000 to $65,000 price range, representing about 0.7% of circulating supply and forming Bitcoin's largest on-chain cost-basis cluster.

Federal Reserve policy impact

• ▪The probability of a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike receded to approximately 60% from 100% after softer U.S. job-openings data was released.
• ▪Market participants priced in a 64.7% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September 2026 following the release of the July U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Historical recovery patterns

• ▪Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility compresses to levels seen in August 2026, the market squeeze has almost always resolved upward.
• ▪Bitcoin historically recovered from its 2018 bear market and its 2022 market collapse several months after the events as global liquidity improved and institutional adoption grew.