Cook Political Report shifts 18 House races toward Democrats

With less than four weeks until the midterm elections, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted 18 House races in favor of Democrats. The forecaster projects Democrats will flip nine to 19 seats, securing a majority of 224 to 234 seats. The shifts include moving five toss-up seats to leaning Democratic and four Republican-leaning seats to toss-ups. Despite heavy spending, Republicans struggle under the weight of an unpopular war, high fuel prices, and the political liability of President Donald Trump.

Overview of rating shifts

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted four House races in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia previously rated as "Leans Republican" to "toss-up" on October 9, 2026
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted five House races previously rated as "toss-up" to "Leans Democratic" on October 9, 2026
• ▪The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for 18 U.S. House of Representatives races in favor of Democratic candidates on October 9, 2026

Races shifted to Toss-Up

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the race in Iowa's open 2nd Congressional District, where Democrat Lindsay James faces Republican Joe Mitchell, from "Leans Republican" to "toss-up."
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the race in Michigan's 4th Congressional District, held by Republican Representative Bill Huizenga, from "Leans Republican" to "toss-up."
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the race in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, held by Democratic Representative Don Davis, from "Leans Republican" to "toss-up."

Races shifted to Leans Democratic

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the race of Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against Republican challenger John Braun from "toss-up" to "Leans Democratic."
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the races of Republican Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn, Ryan Mackenzie, and Scott Perry from "toss-up" to "Leans Democratic."

Projections for House control

• ▪Of the House seats labeled as "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report on October 9, 2026, 15 are held by Republicans and six are held by Democrats
• ▪The Cook Political Report projected that Democrats will hold between 224 and 234 House seats in 2027, surpassing the 218 seats required to secure a majority
• ▪The Cook Political Report projected on October 9, 2026, that Democrats are most likely to flip a net of nine to 19 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections

Impact of Donald Trump on candidates

• ▪A Politico poll published on October 9, 2026, found that approximately one-in-four voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 believe their local Republican congressional candidate would benefit from breaking away from Trump
• ▪Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey stated that heavy Republican advertising spending has failed to move polling needles or distance struggling candidates from President Donald Trump

Redistricting efforts

• ▪House Republican leaders admitted that their mid-decade redistricting efforts fell short of expectations in securing a stronger electoral advantage
• ▪North Carolina redistricted its congressional map to make Democratic Representative Don Davis's seat more favorable to the Republican Party

Debatable claims

• ▪President Trump's personal unpopularity is a greater drag on GOP candidates than national economic issues
• ▪The 2026 midterm elections are primarily a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency
• ▪The Cook Political Report's rating shifts accurately reflect the final trajectory of the midterm elections
• ▪Republican congressional candidates in swing districts should distance themselves from Donald Trump