Republicans divided over Trump's role in 2026 midterm campaigns as approval ratings fall

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Republican Party is deeply divided over President Donald Trump's role on the campaign trail. While Trump prepares to launch a multi-state tour starting October 1 to mobilize low-propensity voters, his national approval rating has plummeted to 33%. Candidates in tight races, such as Representative Ashley Hinson and Jon Husted, are distancing themselves or breaking with Trump on key issues like the Iran war, while party strategists warn that his polarizing presence could alienate crucial moderate swing voters.

Republican divisions over campaigning with Trump

• ▪Republican candidates in competitive 2026 midterm races face a dilemma of whether to campaign alongside President Donald Trump, fearing his low approval ratings could alienate moderate swing voters while keeping him away could depress conservative turnout.
• ▪A national Republican operative stated that there are no indications that turning out low-propensity base voters will be sufficient to overcome the loss of moderate persuasion voters caused by President Donald Trump's presence.
• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine and John Sununu's Senate campaign in New Hampshire have publicly stated they have no plans to campaign with President Donald Trump.
• ▪Outgoing North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that he does not believe it would be helpful for President Donald Trump to campaign in North Carolina, while Michael Whatley's Senate campaign adviser Jonathan Felts welcomed Trump's visits.

Trump's midterm campaign tour

• ▪President Donald Trump is scheduled to embark on a midterm campaign tour starting October 1, 2026, with stops planned in Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio, Texas, Nebraska, Alaska, and Florida.
• ▪The Republican National Committee and campaign operatives stated that President Donald Trump's campaign stops in Oklahoma and Alabama are strategically designed to also influence neighboring media markets in Texas and Florida.

Referendum on Trump

• ▪President Donald Trump has publicly urged voters to treat the 2026 midterm elections as a referendum on his presidency and to pretend that he is on the ballot.
• ▪An unnamed Republican official warned that President Donald Trump's strategy of asking voters to pretend he is on the ballot could heavily motivate opposing Democratic voters.

Midterm campaign advertising

• ▪Due to highly unfavorable polling, some Republican candidates are actively excluding President Donald Trump from their midterm television advertisements and campaign websites.
• ▪Republicans are projected to spend at least $888 million on 2026 midterm advertising compared to $666 million by Democrats, focusing their expenditures heavily on defending red states and districts.

Taxpayer-funded advertisements

• ▪The White House has defended President Donald Trump's taxpayer-funded television advertisements by claiming that the spots are public service announcements.
• ▪President Donald Trump has utilized taxpayer funds to air campaign-style television advertisements featuring himself, including a 30-second spot that aired during NFL games in late September 2026.

Trump's declining approval ratings

• ▪According to Civiqs rolling tracker data as of September 28, 2026, President Donald Trump's net approval rating has fallen by at least 18 percentage points in all seven planned campaign stop states since he returned to office on January 20, 2025.
• ▪Civiqs rolling tracker data indicates that Alabama and Oklahoma are the only states on President Donald Trump's seven-state campaign itinerary where his approval rating exceeds his disapproval rating.
• ▪A CNN poll reported in September 2026 indicated that President Donald Trump's national approval rating stands at 33 percent, with 67 percent of Americans disapproving of his performance.

GOP campaign anxieties

• ▪An unnamed campaign operative stated that the only way for the Republican Party to improve its 2026 midterm prospects would be to go back in time and never start the war with Iran.
• ▪An unnamed advisor to President Donald Trump told CNN that the 2026 midterm elections are going to be 'f***ing rough' for the Republican Party, contrasting with the White House's optimistic public messaging.