Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Hispanic voters in Texas are demonstrating a significant shift away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Driven by economic anxiety over high living costs and widespread opposition to aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, approval for Trump among Texas Latinos has dropped to 34%. This political realignment threatens recent mid-decade GOP redistricting efforts in South Texas, where Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido leads in the 15th congressional district, and has elevated the high-profile U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton into a competitive contest in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in over 30 years.
Donald Trump's standing among Texas Latino voters
- ▪An October 2026 CBS News poll found that 34% of Texas Latinos approved of President Donald Trump's job performance, which was 11 percentage points below his overall statewide standing.
- ▪President Donald Trump won approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, setting a record for a Republican presidential candidate.
- ▪Polling from Equis Research conducted in late summer 2026 found that disapproval of President Donald Trump reached 63% among Texas Latino voters.
The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race
- ▪Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.
- ▪A Fox News poll conducted October 15 to 19, 2026, found Hispanic voters in Texas favoring Democratic candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race by 30 points, 64% to 34%.
- ▪The Democratic Party has not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas in over 30 years.
Texas's 15th congressional district
- ▪In October 2026 polling for Texas's 15th congressional district, Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido held a lead over Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz.
- ▪Texas's 15th congressional district was redrawn by the state Legislature in 2025 to create a notional 18-point Republican margin for the 2026 midterms.
Scale of ICE arrest operations
- ▪Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026, according to Deportation Data Project figures.
- ▪Immigration and Customs Enforcement set a national target of 3,000 daily immigration arrests in 2026.
ICE shootings and custody deaths
- ▪At least 60 people have died in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody since January 2025.
- ▪Federal law enforcement officers with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies have been involved in at least 25 shootings since January 2025, six of which were fatal.
Impact of ICE enforcement on texas construction
- ▪Increased street-level operations and apprehensions by ICE targeting construction sites and transport vehicles have disrupted building projects and increased labor costs across Texas.
- ▪In Texas, four out of every ten construction workers are foreign-born, with the majority being Hispanic, according to industry estimates.
Federal investigations into voter eligibility
- ▪In August 2026, the Department of Homeland Security deployed Homeland Security Investigations agents to conduct field inquiries regarding voter eligibility across at least nine states.
- ▪A federal judge ordered the Department of Homeland Security in October 2026 to pause field investigations probing non-citizen voter eligibility due to risks of voter intimidation.
Economic concerns among Texas voters
- ▪In a Texas Southern University poll conducted in October 2026, 52% of likely voters in Texas's 15th congressional district stated they were worse off economically than a year earlier.
- ▪Polling in October 2026 indicates that the economy and cost of living rank as top priorities among most Texas voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
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