Study finds childhood vaccination coverage stalled or declined across most EU countries after COVID-19

Childhood vaccination rates are declining across the US and Europe in the post-pandemic era. In Michigan, school immunization waivers climbed to a ten-year high of 7.1% in 2025, while national US kindergarten exemptions rose to 4.2%. Concurrently, a Lancet study reveals widespread routine immunization declines across 16 European Union nations. These trends coincide with growing political polarization, shifts in federal vaccine guidance, and administrative delays in US federal distribution programs.

Childhood vaccination waiver rates

• ▪Nearly 25,000 public and private school students in Michigan were reported to have vaccine exemptions in 2025 out of more than 345,000 students with complete documentation.
• ▪The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that national kindergarten vaccine exemption rates increased to 4.2% during the 2025-2026 school year, up from 3.6% the year before.
• ▪The rate of school immunization waivers in Michigan climbed to 7.1% in 2025, up from 6.2% in 2024, marking the highest exemption rate in the state since 2010.

Post-pandemic vaccination decline

• ▪Sixteen European Union countries experienced recent declines in vaccination rates for four or more childhood vaccines, with Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, the Netherlands, Romania, and Sweden showing downward trends for all seven vaccines studied.
• ▪A study published in The Lancet Regional Health—Europe found that childhood vaccination coverage has declined across most European Union countries in recent years, reversing progress made since 1980.
• ▪Most recent childhood vaccination declines in the European Union began between 2019 and 2022, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rural versus urban disparities

• ▪Urban and suburban school districts in Michigan, including Ann Arbor Public Schools and Novi Community School District, maintain kindergarten vaccination completion rates near the 95% herd immunity benchmark.
• ▪Oxford Virtual Academy led Michigan public schools with the most reported kindergarten vaccine waivers, with 93 out of 205 kindergarten students granted exemptions.
• ▪Michigan school districts with the highest vaccine waiver rates are located in northern and rural communities, such as Lapeer Community Schools, Howell Public Schools, and North Branch Area Schools, which have kindergarten waiver rates in the double digits.

Disease transmission in schools

• ▪Michigan reported 16 cases of measles during the summer of 2026 as the United States grappled with a series of outbreaks in multiple states.
• ▪University of Michigan epidemiologist Abram Wagner stated that schools with high rates of vaccine waivers make it much easier to spread vaccine-preventable infectious diseases.

Federal vaccine program delays

• ▪The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has been unable to formally vote on vaccine recommendations because a federal judge temporarily blocked an HHS committee overhaul in March 2026.
• ▪The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has delayed making updated 2026-27 COVID-19 vaccines available through the Vaccines for Children program, which covers about half of US children.

Debatable claims

• ▪States should require parents to attend education sessions for vaccine waivers
• ▪Childhood vaccination policy should prioritize shared clinical decision-making over standardized mandates
• ▪The routine childhood vaccination schedule should be reduced