Americans vote in midterm elections seen as referendum on Trump's second term

Americans vote on November 3, 2026 in midterm elections widely viewed as a referendum on Donald Trump's second term. With all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 39 governorships at stake, Republicans risk losing control of Congress amid low presidential approval ratings of 33% to 37%. Public dissatisfaction centers on an ongoing military conflict with Iran, rising gasoline prices, and high living costs, giving Democrats momentum in key battleground states and shaping early dynamics for the 2028 presidential race.

2026 midterm election stakes

• ▪The 2026 U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026 will decide control of all 435 House of Representatives seats, 35 Senate seats, and 39 governorships across 36 states and three U.S. territories
• ▪Control of both congressional chambers by Democrats would enable them to stall President Donald Trump's legislative agenda, launch investigations, and exercise leverage over spending and executive branch oversight
• ▪The 2026 U.S. midterm election campaign attracted more than $11 billion in total political advertising across all races

Trump approval ratings decline

• ▪President Donald Trump's public approval rating dropped to between 33% and 37% ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections
• ▪An FT-Focaldata poll released prior to the November 3, 2026 elections showed that nearly 70% of all respondents and 77% of independent voters disapproved of President Donald Trump's handling of price increases and the cost of living
• ▪Disclosures to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics showed President Donald Trump earned about $2.2 billion since taking office for Donald Trump's second term, including meme coin royalties
• ▪A Harris poll reported by The Guardian prior to the November 3, 2026 elections found that 76% of respondents believed elected officials care more about enriching themselves than improving the economy

Iran war economic impact

• ▪The military conflict with Iran launched by President Donald Trump in February 2026 in tandem with Israel exacerbated domestic inflation by raising diesel and energy prices across supply chains
• ▪Iran's retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. military action led to rising global oil prices and increased gasoline costs for American motorists

Congressional control battleground races

• ▪Republicans hold a narrow House majority entering the November 3, 2026 midterms, with Democrats needing a net gain of three to four seats to win control of the chamber
• ▪Democratic Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed
• ▪In New York's 17th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Mike Lawler faces Democratic challenger Cait Conley in a closely watched House race
• ▪Competitive Senate contests in 2026 include Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Maine, Iowa, and Kansas
• ▪Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority entering the November 3, 2026 midterms, while Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control of the chamber

Democratic blue wave prospects

• ▪More than 57 million Americans cast ballots through early voting prior to Election Day on November 3, 2026
• ▪A New York Times/Siena poll published on November 1, 2026 showed Democratic Senate candidates leading in five of seven key battleground states, including Texas and Kansas
• ▪The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an request by the Trump administration to block California from counting more than 20,000 disputed mail-in ballots
• ▪A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that sought to block certification of Alaska's Senate election results
• ▪Decision Desk HQ's final forecast ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections projected Democrats winning 241 House seats to Republicans' 194 and securing a 52-48 Senate majority