Iran Ceasefire Falters as Market Volatility Rises Amid Trump-Xi Talks in South Korea

An Iran ceasefire agreement that began after the U.S. and Israeli-led war started on February 28, 2026 is collapsing as both sides continue military strikes, with President Trump calling it "on life support" on May 12, 2026. Oil markets are experiencing severe volatility, with Brent crude topping $104 per barrel and prices rising over 40% since February, prompting Trump and Republicans to consider suspending the federal gas tax ahead of midterm elections. Trump is scheduled to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the week, accompanied by CEOs Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets Japanese officials to discuss Iran, rare earth metals, and the weak yen. Meanwhile, Nintendo shares plunged 8.4% to their lowest level since August 2024 after announcing Switch 2 price hikes, even as U.S. stock indices reach new highs.

Iran ceasefire deterioration

• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump stated on May 12, 2026 that the Iran ceasefire was "on life support" and "unbelievably weak".
• ▪The U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran started on February 28, 2026.

Oil market impact

• ▪The Nasdaq Composite reached new highs on May 12, 2026.
• ▪Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated that if the Strait of Hormuz opens, it will take months for the oil market to rebalance.
• ▪Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 3% and topped $104 per barrel on May 12, 2026.
• ▪U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery climbed 3% to close at $98.07 per barrel on May 12, 2026.
• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are floating a suspension of the federal gas tax to ease pump prices ahead of the midterm elections.
• ▪Crude oil prices have risen more than 40% since February 28, 2026.

Trump-Xi summit preparations

• ▪Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is notably absent from the guest list for the Trump-Xi summit.
• ▪Tesla CEO Elon Musk will accompany U.S. President Donald Trump to the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the week of May 12, 2026.

Treasury diplomacy in Japan

• ▪U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in Japan for meetings with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama during the week of May 12, 2026.

Nintendo Switch 2 struggles

• ▪Nintendo shares closed at their lowest level since August 2024 on May 11, 2026.
• ▪Nintendo announced price hikes for the Switch 2 console due to rising memory costs.
• ▪Nintendo stock has fallen 34% in 2026.
• ▪Nintendo shares plunged 8.4% on May 11, 2026 to close at 7,020 yen (US$44.64) in Tokyo.
• ▪Nintendo forecasted 16.5 million unit sales of the Switch 2 in the fiscal year ending March 2027.
• ▪Nintendo sold 19.86 million Switch 2 units since the console's launch in June 2025.
• ▪Nintendo announced price hikes for its Switch 2 console in markets across the world on May 8, 2026.

Perspective of Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser

• ▪Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser characterizes the oil market rebalancing as a multi-month process contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

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