US uninsured rate holds steady at 8% in 2025, but could rise amid Trump administration health policy changes

The U.S. uninsured rate held steady at 8% in 2025, but new CDC data shows the number of uninsured grew by 800,000. Experts warn the rate will likely rise due to Trump administration policies, including Medicaid changes that could leave 10 million more uninsured over a decade and the expiration of ACA subsidies. KFF projects 5 million fewer will enroll in marketplace plans in 2026 as a result.

U.S. uninsured rate in 2025

• ▪The survey suggests a possible increased insured rate among Hispanic Americans, which one expert said may reflect the effects of immigration policies.
• ▪Despite the steady rate, the number of uninsured people grew by about 800,000 in 2025, including 300,000 children, due to population growth.
• ▪The proportion of Americans without health insurance held steady at about 8% in 2025, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• ▪The CDC survey data for 2025 is the first complete data for the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term in office.

Affordable Care Act subsidy expiration

• ▪Healthcare research nonprofit KFF estimates that around 5 million fewer people will enroll in ACA marketplace plans in 2026 compared to 2025.
• ▪The expiration of certain Affordable Care Act subsidies in 2026 is expected to reduce participation in marketplace health programs.

Medicaid program cuts

• ▪Changes to Medicaid passed into law in 2025 could result in 10 million more uninsured individuals over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
• ▪Experts agree the uninsured rate will likely rise in the coming years due to changes to the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid.

Historical uninsured rate trends

• ▪Most Americans aged 65 and older receive health insurance through the federal Medicare program.
• ▪The uninsured rate rose to between 11% and 12% during President Trump's first administration.
• ▪The U.S. uninsured rate fell to an all-time low below 9% in 2023 due to policies preserving coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• ▪Following the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, the under-65 uninsured rate dropped to nearly 10% by 2016.
• ▪The uninsured rate for Americans under 65 rose from 12% in 1980 to more than 18% in 2010.

Health policy stakeholder responses

• ▪The Trump administration suggested that projected enrollment declines indicate a drop-off of fraudulent and ineligible enrollees.
• ▪Nancy Brown, CEO of the American Heart Association, urged policymakers to protect and expand access to affordable coverage and strengthen Medicaid.
• ▪The Trump administration has aimed to expand access to low-premium catastrophic health plans and lower drug prices for the uninsured.

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