Ahead of the 2026 midterms, Democrats hold a 49% to 39% lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in a CNN/SSRS poll. Fueling the margin, President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to a historic low of 32%, weighed down by economic discontent and rising gas prices averaging $4.26 per gallon. Nonpartisan handicappers Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ project Democrats as favored to retake the U.S. House majority.
Democratic polling lead nationwide
- ▪Democratic candidates hold wide margins in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll among traditional supporters, including Black voters (+70 points), Latino voters (+40 points), women (+21 points), and independent voters (+15 points)
- ▪Among registered voters in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Democrats hold an 18-point margin over Republicans
- ▪In a CNN/SSRS poll conducted October 15-18, 2026, registered voters favored Democratic congressional candidates over Republican candidates by 49% to 39% nationwide
- ▪Registered voters who have already cast early or mail-in ballots for the November 2026 midterms favored Democratic candidates 70% to 29% over Republican candidates in the CNN/SSRS poll conducted October 15-18
Trump approval rating collapse
- ▪Roughly 6 in 10 voters in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll say their midterm vote will send a message about President Donald Trump, with opposition outnumbering support by a 2-to-1 margin
- ▪President Donald Trump's overall job approval rating fell to a record low of 32% in an October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll
- ▪Only 13% of Americans in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll strongly approve of President Donald Trump's presidency, down 17 percentage points from the 2018 midterm campaign period
- ▪Two-thirds of Americans in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll say President Donald Trump's policies have made economic conditions in the United States worse
Economic concerns dominate voters
- ▪President Donald Trump received a 27% approval rating on handling the economy and a 23% approval rating on handling inflation in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll
- ▪Nearly 70% of voters in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll say President Donald Trump has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices
- ▪In the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll, voters who rated the economy as their top concern favored Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 46% to 37%
- ▪Average U.S. gas prices reached $4.26 per gallon on October 21, 2026, up almost $1.21 from the prior year following U.S. strikes on Iran and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, according to AAA
Republican base erosion patterns
- ▪Nearly 40% of Republican-aligned adults younger than age 45 disapprove of President Donald Trump in the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll
- ▪A 29-point gap in strong motivation to vote exists between younger and older Republican-aligned adults ahead of the November 2026 midterms, compared to a 15-point gap among Democrats
- ▪President Donald Trump's approval rating among White Americans without college degrees dropped to 45% in October 2026 from 63% at the start of his second term
- ▪President Donald Trump's approval rating among Republicans dropped to a numeric low of 74% in October 2026, down from 88% in February 2025
House control forecast shifts
- ▪In the October 2026 CNN/SSRS poll, 41% of voters said the country would be better off if Democrats win control of Congress, 37% said worse off, and 22% said it would make no difference
- ▪Election handicapper Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted 28 House races toward Democrats, projecting the party to win more than the 218 seats required for a U.S. House majority
- ▪Decision Desk HQ forecast on October 21, 2026, that Democrats have a 77% chance of winning control of the House and a 55% chance of winning the Senate
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