OpenAI projects $278 billion cash burn by 2030

OpenAI projects a massive negative free cash flow of $278 billion from 2026 to 2030, driven by an estimated $856 billion in computing infrastructure spending. Despite forecasting a tenfold revenue increase to $350 billion by 2030, the company is on track to exhaust its $122 billion cash reserve by 2028. Consequently, OpenAI is seeking fresh investments at a valuation of up to $1.2 trillion while delaying its planned initial public offering due to safety concerns and market skepticism.

Cash burn through 2030

• ▪OpenAI projects a negative free cash flow of $278 billion over a five-year period from 2026 to 2030, according to a company presentation seen by the Financial Times
• ▪OpenAI had previously projected an even deeper negative free cash flow of $305 billion in a company forecast from May 2026, compared with its later projection of $278 billion in negative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030
• ▪OpenAI is on track to exhaust the $122 billion OpenAI raised in March 2026 by the year 2028, according to a company presentation

Computing infrastructure spending

• ▪OpenAI has slashed its prices to win business from US rival Anthropic and to counter cheaper open-weight models from China
• ▪OpenAI forecasts spending approximately $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure needed to train and run its AI models by the end of 2030 as its largest single expense category

Revenue growth forecasts

• ▪OpenAI anticipates booking a cumulative total of $840 billion in revenue between 2026 and the end of 2030
• ▪OpenAI projects its annual revenue will grow tenfold from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion in 2030

Valuation in funding talks

• ▪OpenAI recently entered talks for a major new funding round, with backers approaching the company to discuss investing at a $1.2 trillion valuation
• ▪OpenAI was valued at $852 billion during OpenAI's funding round in March 2026, where it raised $122 billion

IPO timeline delay

• ▪OpenAI confidentially filed initial public offering paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2026 but has since deferred the process
• ▪OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated on September 12, 2026, that the company would not go public in 2026 due to concerns regarding artificial intelligence safety

Debatable claims

• ▪OpenAI's massive spending on computing infrastructure is an unsustainable business model
• ▪OpenAI is right to delay its initial public offering to prioritize safety