ASML raised its full-year 2026 net sales forecast to between 44 billion and 45 billion euros ($49.3 billion to $50.4 billion) and posted third-quarter profits of 4.96 billion euros, beating market expectations. Surging artificial intelligence investments are driving intense demand for ASML's semiconductor lithography tools, prompting chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung to commit to High NA EUV tools and explore orders through 2030. Consequently, ASML warned it faces potential tool supply shortfalls in 2027 and 2028.
Updated full-year 2026 financial guidance
- ▪ASML raised its full-year 2026 gross margin guidance to roughly 56%, up from a previous target range of 54% to 56%
- ▪ASML narrowed its full-year 2026 net sales forecast to between 44 billion euros and 45 billion euros ($49.3 billion to $50.4 billion), raising the lower end from 43 billion euros
Rising AI demand and capacity expansion plans
- ▪ASML previously communicated plans in July 2026 to increase manufacturing capacity by 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028
- ▪ASML stated that planned tool supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, prompting ASML to investigate expanding 2028 capacity beyond a 30% increase previously forecast in July 2026
- ▪ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that customers are increasing short- and medium-term tool demand forecasts driven by artificial intelligence investments, with some seeking to place orders for 2029 and 2030
Extreme ultraviolet lithography market adoption
- ▪ASML holds an effective global monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are critical tools used by semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC
- ▪Samsung and TSMC committed during third-quarter 2026 to using ASML's next-generation High NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines
China sales and domestic DUV competition
- ▪An unnamed Chinese company reportedly began manufacturing an immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine, according to a July 2026 report cited by CNBC
- ▪ASML reiterated its forecast that sales to China will account for 20% of its total business despite sales restrictions on EUV and certain DUV equipment sold to China
Debatable claims
- ▪AI-driven demand for chipmaking equipment is driving unsustainable overinvestment in semiconductor capacity
- ▪Export restrictions on semiconductor equipment fail to prevent China from building domestic chip capabilities
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