Middle East states navigate delicate balancing act between US and Iran

Aug 21, 2026

Middle Eastern states are navigating intense geopolitical pressures by balancing relations between the U.S. and Iran. Oman faces severe diplomatic strain and military threats from U.S. President Donald Trump over its bilateral negotiations with Tehran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Jordan is executing a strategic energy policy to manage its resource constraints, utilizing cross-border electricity interconnections and domestic gas expansion to reduce its sensitive dependence on Israeli gas imports.

Jordan energy diversification strategy

▪Jordan aims to begin commercial green hydrogen production in 2030, targeting approximately half a million tonnes annually by 2035.
▪Jordan's 2025–2035 Energy Strategy targets renewables to account for 40 percent of domestic electricity generation by 2035.
▪The Jordanian government approved the 2025–2035 Energy Strategy on May 3, 2026, aiming to reduce vulnerability through geography, diversification, and interconnection.
▪Jordan plans to increase production from the Risha gas field to 418 million cubic feet per day by 2029 and 812 million by 2035.

Regional electricity interconnections

▪The planned Jordan-Saudi electricity interconnection is designed for an initial capacity of 500 MW, with potential expansion to 1,000 MW.
▪Jordan has supplied approximately 40 MW of electricity to Iraq's Al-Rutba area since March 2024 as the first phase of their electricity interconnection.
▪Energy ministers from Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon met in Amman on November 20, 2025, to discuss reviving cooperation on electricity and gas.

Israeli gas dependency

▪Jordan imports natural gas from Israel's Leviathan field under a long-term agreement, creating a politically sensitive strategic dependence for Amman.
▪Jordan's domestic expansion of the Risha gas field and renewable energy is intended to reduce excessive exposure to its single foreign gas supplier, Israel.

US-Oman diplomatic tensions

▪U.S. President Donald Trump previously threatened Oman in May 2026, stating the U.S. would blow Oman up if it sought control of the Strait of Hormuz.
▪U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in August 2026 to bomb Oman if the Omani government interferes with U.S. efforts to end the war with Iran.
▪The Omani government did not issue a public response to U.S. President Donald Trump's August 2026 military threats.

Strait of Hormuz negotiations

▪Oman and Iran reached an understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz and were working to finalise a joint statement as of August 17, 2026.
▪The June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding collapsed because the U.S. and Iran disagreed on whether the text recognized Iranian management of the entire Strait of Hormuz.
▪A 14-point interim framework agreement signed in Islamabad on June 17, 2026, which endorsed a 60-day Omani-Iranian maritime mechanism, expired on August 17, 2026.

Gulf states Iran balancing act

▪Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on August 20, 2026, that Oman remains committed to maritime security and rejects escalation or conflict.
▪Iran launched retaliatory strikes against all five other Gulf Cooperation Council states and Gulf-linked shipping vessels during the conflict.
▪During the war with Iran, Oman sustained retaliatory strikes targeting its ports and energy infrastructure while continuing to maintain diplomatic channels with Tehran.