US-Iran peace talks stall over $24 billion in frozen assets as Tehran holds pro-government rallies

Peace talks between the US and Iran have stalled over Tehran's demand for the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, a condition an Iranian official called a "test of trust." The deadlock follows a recent 40-day war and comes as Iran's regime faces mounting economic pressure, internal divisions, and a weakened regional proxy network, even as it holds nightly pro-government rallies and its lawmakers call for new missile development.

US-Iran peace talks stalemate

• ▪Peace talks between the United States and Iran are at a deadlock.
• ▪The current negotiations follow a 40-day US-Israeli war on Iran that began in late February.
• ▪Mohsen Rezaei warned that if fighting resumes, Iran could expand the war to the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Mediterranean Sea.

Iran frozen assets dispute

• ▪Iran has demanded the release of $12 billion in frozen funds upon signing an interim agreement, with another $12 billion to be released later.
• ▪Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, called the $24 billion demand a "test of trust" for the US.
• ▪The stalemate in US-Iran peace talks is over Iran's demand for the release of $24 billion in frozen assets.
• ▪US officials are concerned that unfreezing Iranian assets could remove a key point of leverage over the regime.

Iranian regime weakness indicators

• ▪Iranian lawmakers are demanding the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• ▪Pro-government rallies have occurred almost nightly in major Iranian squares since mid-March.
• ▪The rallies have exposed divisions within Iran's conservative camp, particularly over the issue of negotiations with the United States.
• ▪Iranian officials, including Mojtaba Khamenei and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have encouraged supporters to continue the public rallies.
• ▪Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has warned about internal divisions and threats to the Iranian regime's resilience.
• ▪Iran's insistence on immediate access to frozen assets suggests the government is under mounting financial pressure.

Iran proxy network deterioration

• ▪During the recent 40-day war, Iran retaliated by targeting sites in 12 countries across the region.
• ▪Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani recently demanded that Israel withdraw from Lebanon.
• ▪Iran's proxy network is considered weaker today than it has been in years, with Hamas suffering devastating losses and Hezbollah facing unprecedented pressure.

Iranian domestic economic pressure

• ▪The Iranian regime has spent decades funding its proxy network while neglecting the economic needs of its own people.
• ▪Many Iranian families are struggling with inflation, corruption, and economic uncertainty.

3 sources