A decade after the UK's Brexit vote, new analyses show the decision has cost the economy 6% of its GDP. Studies indicate trade has been hit across nearly all sectors, with food exports to the EU down over 23% and thousands of small firms ceasing EU trade. While Northern Ireland's economy has outperformed the UK due to its single-market access, overall business investment remains the lowest in the G7. PM Keir Starmer plans a July summit to ease trade friction.
Brexit economic impact estimates
- ▪The U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research predicts Brexit will reduce the size of the UK economy by between 6% and 8%
- ▪Analysis of Bank of England company data suggests the UK economy has taken a 6% hit from the effects of Brexit over a decade
- ▪The UK's government budget forecasters estimate Brexit will make the country's economy 4% smaller after 15 years than if it had remained in the EU
- ▪On June 23, 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union by a 52% to 48% margin
UK-EU export decline
- ▪Since the UK left the EU, exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals have fallen by 21%, and "agrifood" exports are down 29%
- ▪Volumes of UK food exports to the EU declined by more than 23% between 2021 and 2025 compared to the five years before Brexit
- ▪A study by the Centre for European Reform found that Brexit has reduced trade in nearly every sector of the UK economy
- ▪By 2024, approximately 20,000 small UK firms had stopped exporting goods to the EU
Trade barriers for food producers
- ▪Bridge Cheese found that veterinary certification costs the same for a 16,800 kg container to Asia as for a 1,200 kg shipment to the EU
- ▪British cheesemaker Bridge Cheese stopped exporting to the EU due to new costs, including mandatory veterinary checks costing £500 per inspection
Northern Ireland single-market advantage
- ▪Between 2015 and 2023, Northern Ireland's economy grew by 16.5%, compared to 11.6% for England's economy
- ▪Northern Ireland retained free access to the EU's single market, helping its economy outperform the rest of the UK
Business investment weakness
- ▪The National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that UK investment is 18% lower than it would have been without Brexit
- ▪UK business investment as a share of GDP has been the lowest among G7 economies since shortly before the 2016 Brexit vote
UK-EU reset negotiations
- ▪UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to meet with EU counterparts at a summit on July 22
- ▪The July summit aims to secure a deal to reduce veterinary checks from mid-2027 and discuss cooperation on exports, electricity, and emissions trading
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