Eli Lilly raises revenue forecast on weight-loss drug demand

Eli Lilly raised its 2026 full-year revenue guidance by $5 billion to between $91 billion and $92 billion on October 29, 2026, boosted by surging demand for weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Q3 revenue reached $24.4 billion, easily beating estimates, while Mounjaro brought in $10.72 billion. A US Medicare pilot program added 500,000 new patients at $50 monthly. Though obesity pill Foundayo lagged targets at $184 million, Lilly expanded its lead over Novo Nordisk to reach a $1.2 trillion market valuation.

Financial results and full-year outlook

• ▪Eli Lilly lowered its 2026 adjusted profit outlook to $35.00 to $36.00 per share from $35.50 to $36.50 per share due to acquisition charges for AtaiBeckley and Curevo
• ▪Eli Lilly reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, exceeding Wall Street analyst expectations of $22.61 billion
• ▪Eli Lilly reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted profit of $7.48 per share, beating analyst estimates of $6.26 per share
• ▪Eli Lilly raised its 2026 full-year revenue forecast by $5 billion to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion on October 29, 2026

Mounjaro sales and pricing performance

• ▪Third-quarter 2026 sales of Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $10.72 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion
• ▪Eli Lilly's realized prices outside the U.S. fell 29% in third-quarter 2026, driven primarily by Mounjaro's inclusion on China's national reimbursement drug list
• ▪International sales of Mounjaro generated $5.7 billion in third-quarter 2026, marking a 93% increase over the year-ago quarter

Medicare pilot program for obesity drugs

• ▪Participants in the Medicare pilot program launched in July pay $50 monthly for Eli Lilly's weight-loss drugs, compared to $449 a month on Lilly's cash-pay platform
• ▪More than 500,000 patients accessed Eli Lilly's obesity medicines through a U.S. Medicare pilot program launched in July 2026 for seniors and people with disabilities

Foundayo sales and market adoption

• ▪Eli Lilly's Foundayo share of new-to-brand prescriptions reached approximately 40% in third-quarter 2026, up from 20% in the previous quarter
• ▪Eli Lilly Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce stated that $30 million of Foundayo revenue was recognized in second-quarter 2026 as channel inventory
• ▪Eli Lilly's obesity pill Foundayo generated $184 million in third-quarter 2026 revenue, missing analyst estimates of $216.86 million

Jardiance milestone payments

• ▪Eli Lilly expects the $410 million milestone payment received for diabetes drug Jardiance in the third quarter of 2026 to be its final milestone payment for the drug
• ▪Eli Lilly's third-quarter 2026 revenue included $410 million in diabetes drug Jardiance milestone payments and favorable rebate adjustments, totaling approximately $900 million in benefits

Zepbound Demand and revenue forecast

• ▪Third-quarter 2026 sales of Eli Lilly's obesity injection Zepbound reached $5.35 billion, topping analyst estimates of $5.09 billion
• ▪Surging demand for obesity injection Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro led Eli Lilly to increase its full-year 2026 revenue guidance

Realized prices and sales volume

• ▪Eli Lilly reported a 53% increase in product sales volume in the third quarter of 2026, which was partially offset by a 15% drop in realized prices
• ▪Eli Lilly's overall realized prices fell 15% in third-quarter 2026, including a 7% drop in U.S. prices attributed primarily to Zepbound discounts

Retatrutide clinical trial performance

• ▪The weight-loss results from midstage trials of Eli Lilly's candidate retatrutide surpassed the effectiveness of weight-loss drugs currently available on the market
• ▪Midstage clinical trials of Eli Lilly's next-generation weight-loss candidate retatrutide demonstrated average weight loss of 24%, with regulatory submission planned for 2027